Support for Bush Falls On Economy and Iraq By Richard Morin and Dana Milbank Washington Post Staff Writers
President Bush, the target of months of criticism during the Democratic primary season, has seen public support fall to the lowest level of his presidency for his performance on the economy and the situation in Iraq, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll has found.
A majority of Americans -- 57 percent -- say they want their next president to steer the country away from the course set by Bush, according to the survey. Bush's standing hit new lows in crucial areas such as the economy (39 percent support him), Iraq (46 percent) and the budget deficit (30 percent).
Bush's overall support, 50 percent, was unchanged from February and equal to the lowest of his presidency; only the war on terrorism continues to garner him the support of more than six in 10 Americans.
As a result of these doubts, Bush narrowly trails likely Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry by 4 percentage points, 48 to 44 percent, among registered voters in a hypothetical presidential matchup. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader, an independent, claims 3 percent. Of a dozen policy areas, Kerry leads Bush in eight, including the economy, education and health care, while Bush leads only in the war on terrorism. The two candidates are virtually tied in the other three: Iraq, same-sex marriage and civil liberties.
In a bit of good news for Bush, Nader is drawing essentially all of his support from Kerry, who leads Bush by 9 percentage points in a two-way matchup with the president -- an indication Nader could play the spoiler for Democrats in 2004 as he did four years ago. Underscoring that potential, nearly two-thirds of Democrats opposed Nader's decision to run, while nearly half of all Republicans supported his move.
Also, Bush begins the campaign with a strong reservoir of support that Kerry lacks: Nearly nine in 10 Bush supporters say they "strongly" support him, compared with two in three Kerry voters. In addition, six in 10 Kerry supporters say they are voting for the Democrat more as a protest against Bush and his policies, and not because they are attracted to Kerry. By contrast, nearly nine in 10 Bush voters say their support is based on their feelings toward the president, not disapproval of Kerry.
The Bush campaign said the deterioration in the president's standing is a natural result of the Democratic nominating contest, in which the candidates all took aim at Bush. While predicting that Bush will remain tied with or trailing Kerry until the GOP convention this summer, Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd said Kerry's support is "soft," as Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis's was early in the 1988 campaign against George H.W. Bush. Kerry's high standing, Dowd added, "just shows you how little [voters] know about him," Dowd said, and is bound to change once Republicans step up their criticism of him.
The Kerry campaign rejected the 1988 comparison, noting that there was no incumbent in that race and that Dukakis did not lead Bush until later in the campaign. "At this moment George Bush is pushing the boulder up the hill in a significant way," said Mark S. Mellman, Kerry's pollster. "People have made a judgment about him, and they've decided they don't like the way he's dealing with key issues and they want fundamental change."
The Post-ABC survey reflects the pounding Bush has taken from Democrats during the primaries, as well as disappointing news about job creation and more signs of difficulty in Iraq. While half approve of the overall job Bush is doing, the proportions of Americans who disapprove (48 percent) and strongly disapprove (36 percent) have never been higher. Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq has shifted from strength to weakness, with a double-digit increase in opposition this year.
Bush no longer is viewed as someone who can bring the country together. Slightly less than half the public says the president has done more to unite the country, while just as many say he has done more to divide Americans. Fifty-four percent of Americans view Kerry favorably, while 26 percent take an unfavorable view (respondents were evenly divided on Bush, 47 to 46). Nearly half -- 49 percent -- of those interviewed said they trusted Kerry to handle the biggest issues facing the country, while 44 percent preferred Bush. In mid-January, the two were tied.
More Americans also view Kerry as being honest and trustworthy, more understanding of the problems of "people like you" and more tolerant than the president. On the key issue of leadership, a strength GOP strategists are featuring in ads supporting the president, the two candidates are virtually tied, with 63 percent saying Bush is a strong leader and 61 saying the same of Kerry. The two are also closely matched on ideology: A third see Bush as too conservative, and a third see Kerry as too liberal.
Democratic attacks on Bush as a president who favors the interests of large corporations over working people clearly have had an effect. Two in three now say Bush cares more about protecting the interests of large business corporations, up from 58 percent in December.
Kerry's advantage on many key issues was large. The Democrat currently has double-digit advantages over the president as the person best able to handle the economy (Kerry leads Bush by 12 percentage points), Social Security (16 points), education (12 points), the budget deficit (15 points) and health care (20 points). On only one major issue is Bush preferred to Kerry: the war on terrorism, where the president has a 21-point advantage.
While Americans, by 57 percent to 41 percent, would prefer a new direction over Bush's leadership, that does not necessarily mean they will remove him from office in November. In May1988, a similar number favored a new direction, but then-Vice President George H.W. Bush was elevated to president. In March, 1992, 66 percent favored a new direction and he ultimately lost the election. At a similar point in 2000, the country was evenly split.
A total of 1,202 randomly selected adults nationwide were interviewed March 4 to 7 for this telephone survey. The margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.