> Ulhas, any comments?
Bidwai has accurately described BJP's historical trajectory, but see my comments on specific observations below.
Ulhas
>The planned "rath-yatra" (chariot procession), which will continue until
>Apr. 14, has >evoked fears among the BJP's opponents and more important,
>among the 180 million >people who constitute India's religious minorities.
>There are fears that Advani's bellicose Hindu-nationalist rhetoric could
>provoke violence >and distort the democratic nature of the choice before
the
>Indian electorate, when it >chooses its Parliament in April and May.
Advani would be foolish to provoke violence few weeks before general elections. BJP leads a coalition of parties and Hindu nationalist rhetoric has been kept out of the coalition programme. There is little chance that BJP will get absolute majority on its own strength. BJP needs allies, who don't share BJP's anti-minority rhetoric. Further, Indian economy is expected to grow by at least 7% this year. Indian business wants social peace, so that accumulation can continue. e.g. BJP, a party of big bourgeoisie, would not want to disturb outsourcing of business to India from US, which requires social stability.
>The fears are understandable. Advani's first procession, in September and
>October 1990, >focused on the Hindu god Ram and demanded that India's
>Muslims "surrender" to the >Hindu majority a site at Ayodhya where, the BJP
>claimed, they had erected a mosque in >1568 on the ruins of a temple
>dedicated to Ram.
>Advani thus stirred up anti-Muslim hatred - there are some 140
>Muslims among India's one-billion population - and left a trail of blood.
We are in a different conjuncture, globally and domestically. This is not a viable tactical orientation from BJP point of view in the current conjuncture. I am not, however, suggesting that BJP is giving up its anti-muslim politics.
>This time around, Advani is more concerned with projecting himself as a
>firebrand on his >way to moderation and as Vajpayee's logical successor, so
>he is unlikely to foment >violence brazenly.
Yes, that's correct.
>So the BJP is trying to mop up all the support it can - from the upper
>middle class >enamored with Vajpayee's neoliberal economic policies,
All parties, except Marxists parties are committed to liberal economic policies.
>to the small-town trader strongly >driven by anti-Muslim hatred, to the
>storm troopers >loyal to the BJP's extremist affiliates.
BJP's appeal extends to a wide range class/caste background. It is not a party of small town trader.
>More important, the "yatra" shows changed power equations within the BJP's
>top >hierarchy. It signifies that the weight of the hard-line lobby of
>organizational apparatchiks >has increased vis-a-vis its parliamentary
wing.
Speculation about the palace intrigue is not useful. BJP as whole is the biggest threat to India's unity and liberal democratic order.
Ulhas
>Praful Bidwai is a New Delhi-based political analyst and peace activist, a
>columnist with twenty-five Indian newspapers and co-author (with Achin
>Vanaik) of New Nukes: India, Pakistan and Global Nuclear Disarmament. He
>shared the International Peace Bureau's Sean MacBride International Peace
>Prize for 2000 with Vanaik.