On Wed Mar 10, 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
> Yup, but all Nader's support comes at the expense of Kerry. The
> Naderites often deny this is true.
True enough. All the polls give that result without variance. It's very rare to see such complete agreement.
Fwiw, Ruy Teixeira poo-poo's the Nader factor in his latest newsletter:
<quote>
Will Nader 2004 Be More Like Nader 2000 or Buchanan 2000?
IPSOS/ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL OF 771 REGISTERED VOTERS, RELEASED MARCH 5, 2004 (CONDUCTED MARCH 1-3, 2004)
There has been quite a lot of discussion lately about the recent Ipsos-AP poll that showed Nader receiving 6 percent of the vote in a matchup against Kerry and Bush. Obviously, if Nader received support in this range in November it would be very bad news indeed for the Democrats.
But Nader almost certainly will not get that kind of support and he's unlikely even to match the support he received in 2000. Instead, his fate is more likely to be like that of Pat Buchanan in 2000, who also drew some early support in polls, but would up with very few votes (0.43 percent) because his candidacy had no real constituency or plausible rationale.
Consider these data. In late 1999, when Buchanan, like Nader today, was the only third party candidate being tested in polls, he was drawing anywhere between 5 percent and 10 percent support when matched up against Gore and Bush. Then, in late spring, when horse-race polling resumed and Nader also was included in the matchup, he dropped considerably, but still was drawing 3 percent to 5 percent support. Of course, by the time the election rolled around, even that support collapsed and he wound up with less than 0.5 percent of the vote.
Obviously, almost all of that early Buchanan support was extremely soft and very easy for Bush to peel away once push came to shove and Republicans who were supporting Buchanan focused on taking back the White House. That's likely to be Nader's fate in 2004: he may pull the early 4 percent to 6 percent here and there in polls (though hopefully most polling organizations will choose to exclude this peripheral candidate without a party or likely ballot access in many states from their questions) but that support will be very, very soft, declining as the election gets closer and essentially disappearing on election day. In the end, a candidacy that lacks a distinct constituency or plausible rationale will receive the support level it probably deserves-almost nil.
Actually, another finding from the Ipsos-AP poll is of more political significance than Nader's 6 percent. Right now, just 35 percent of Americans say the country is going in the right direction, while 60 percent say it is off on the wrong track. That's down from 44 percent right direction/52 percent wrong track last month and puts Bush in the serious danger zone for incumbents. And this poll was taken before the incredibly bad February jobs report (just 21,000 new jobs), released on March 5.
In short, if Republicans are counting on the Nader vote to get Bush reelected, they seem likely to be disappointed.
<unquote>
Michael