Monday, March 8, 2004
Thai 2003 GDP grows at fastest clip in eight years
Reuters Bangkok, March 8
Thailand's economy grew a faster-than-expected 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, helping it to its biggest annual expansion in eight years, thanks to strong exports and domestic consumption.
Gross domestic product rose 6.7 per cent in 2003, the fastest since 1995, and stronger growth of between seven and eight per cent is expected this year.
The bullish forecast, made by a government agency that provides GDP data, comes despite worries about the impact of bird flu on the world's fourth-largest chicken exporter. The economy grew a faster-than-expected 7.8 per cent on a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Board said on Monday.
"The strong GDP growth in the fourth quarter was brought on by robust investment and domestic consumption," the planning agency's chief Chakramon Phasukavanich told a news conference.
The agency's 2004 GDP growth forecast was largely in line with analysts' expectations, but some saw risks to the economy over the next three months.
"The fourth-quarter GDP data are quite a surprise, but what is important is the momentum going forward. There would be some short-term concern that some consumption indicators and business confidence start to moderate a bit," said economist at DBS Bank in Singapore, Sailesh Jha.
"The first quarter, or the first half, won't get the same growth momentum as seen last year. Part of it is due to sentiment affected by bird flu."
Chakramon expected Thailand to emerge from the bird flu epidemic relatively unscathed, saying it would erode overall economic growth by 0.4 percentage points this year. The bird flu outbreak has killed at least 22 people in Vietnam and Thailand and ravaged the Thai poultry industry, which generated about $1.4 billion worth of exports last year.
Fourth-quarter GDP growth, the fastest since the third quarter of 1999, compared with third quarter growth of 2.3 per cent and only 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2003, when the outbreak of SARS hit Thailand.
The 2003 GDP growth was well above the 6.4 per cent expansion predicted by analysts, and followed 5.4 per cent growth in 2002.
© Hindustan Times Ltd. 2004.