If history is any guide, established Black leaders and organizations and regular Black voters will not abandon the Democratic Party until a politico-economic equivalent of the Great Depression shakes up America.
By 1932, more than 50% of Black workers were unemployed, and yet Black voters remained loyal to the Party of Lincoln:
***** Many people felt that the Democrats in this country and in Chicago, at the advent of Roosevelt, just moved lock, stock, and barrel, out of the Republican Party and into the Democratic Party. No, that wasn't true; that was about a twelve-year period. In 1932 when Roosevelt defeated Mr. Hoover, the majority of blacks voted for Mr. Hoover, because they were traditional Republicans.
(Harold Washington, "Late Mayor of the City of Chicago: The Chicago Democratic Political Machine (Part 2)," <http://dig.lib.niu.edu/blackchicago/washington2.html>) *****
Aside from the history of strong Black partisan loyalty, middle-strata Blacks, who are regular voters and leaders in their communities, must feel that they still have something to lose by risking a Democratic Party defeat.
Therefore, Ralph Nader and the Green Party must concentrate on appealing to and turning out the kind of regular working-class Black voters -- poorer than Black Democratic Party stalwarts -- who are not loyal to the Democratic Party: e.g., "Willie May Roberts, 30, a housekeeper and laundress at a Jonesboro nursing home, voted for Ralph Nader in 2000. She'll vote this year, but has not decided for whom" (Gayle White, "Black Women Form Backbone of Democratic Party Support," February 14, 2004, <http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/0204/15women.html>); and Black voters -- especially young Black voters -- who do not regularly vote (43.2% of the Black voting-age citizen population and 46.5 of the total Black voting-age population did not vote in 2000, <http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/voting/tabA-1.pdf>).
Even aside from the question of how to win more Black support, Nader and the Green Party need to register the unregistered and turn out non-regular voters anyhow:
"Among registered voters, Kerry receives 47% support, Bush 45%, and Nader 5% -- a three-point decline for Kerry with Nader in the race, but no decline for Bush. Among likely voters, Kerry gets 50% support, Bush 44%, and Nader just 2% -- a two-point decline for Kerry, no decline for Bush. The 'likely voter' model suggests that Nader will draw far less support among people who actually turn out to vote than among the larger population of registered voters nationwide. Indeed, younger voters and political independents were among the groups most likely to support Nader in 2000, as well as among the groups with the lowest turnout rates" (David W. Moore, "Kerry Maintains Small Lead, Bush Approval at 49%: Nader Candidacy Hurts Kerry," March 9, 2004, <http://www.gallup.com/content/default.asp?ci=10942>).
Lastly, Nader and the Green Party may fare best in the battleground states (= the "purple states" in the Gallup parlance, where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was five percentage points or less):
"In the red states, Bush leads among likely voters by six points, 51% to 45%, but he trails badly in the purple states (52% for Kerry, 39% Bush, 4% Nader) and in the blue states (55% Kerry, 43% Bush, 1% Nader)" (Moore, <http://www.gallup.com/content/default.asp?ci=10942>).
The segments of the US voting-age population who are the most likely to vote for Nader are Arab and/or Muslim Americans, whose votes are concentrated in the battleground states but for whom John Kerry and the Democratic Party cannot make any policy concessions: "Nader Courts Latino, Black Vote + Muslim Political Muscle," <http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20040315/005683.html>; and "Nader among Arab, Black, & Latino Voters," <http://www.mail-archive.com/pen-l@galaxy.csuchico.edu/msg86819.html>. -- Yoshie
* Bring Them Home Now! <http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/> * Calendars of Events in Columbus: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html>, <http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php>, & <http://www.cpanews.org/> * Student International Forum: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/> * Committee for Justice in Palestine: <http://www.osudivest.org/> * Al-Awda-Ohio: <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio> * Solidarity: <http://www.solidarity-us.org/>