[lbo-talk] Mitchel Cohen responds

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Tue Mar 16 10:47:18 PST 2004


Doug:
> It's also possible that people have a partisan evaluation of the
> economy - in 2000, Dems perceived it as good and getting better, and
> so voted for Gore, and Reps vice versa.
>

Yes, but look at the first question pertaining to the family financial situation - those who were worse off or the same were also more likely to vote for Bush. That suggests the causal relationship run from one's own perceived condition relative to others to political preferences rather than the other way around as you suggest (i.e. political preferences affecting the view of the economy). What is more, if you look further down on the same poll, small-town, rural, Southern and to lesser extent suburban Amerika was by far more likely to favor Bush than their large city Northern compatriots. This is definitely the downwardly mobile crowd, and pretty illiberal to begin with.

That is consistent with the concept of relative deprivation (i.e. how people view their own position in society vis a vis those of their reference groups), which is well established in sociology and is used to explain fascist and racist tendencies. In short, the argument is that if people see themselves as being worse off than the reference group with which they identify (e.g. the "white middle class" in this country), and if that is accompanied by the perception that the perceived "outgroups" (i.e. unpopular minorities) are gaining on them - that is a prescription for their reactionary political choices.

So if the Bushies decide to play the "outgroups (gays, Europeans and assorted foreigners, liberal elites) gaining on us red blooded Amerikuns" game - things can get pretty nasty soon.

Wojtek



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