[lbo-talk] Mitchel Cohen responds

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Tue Mar 16 11:14:27 PST 2004


Kelley:
> I think you're misinterpreting.
>
> Remember Clinton's very effective "It's the economy, stupid" campaign.
I
> don't have time to look up the numbers, but I'd bet you'd see the
opposite
> result with those you're calling "upwardly mobile" voting for
Republicans
> (the incumbent party in 1992). Isn't it a pretty established dynamic:
> people vote with their wallets. If they're doing better, they want to
keep
> the party that's already in power, get rid of it if they feel
downwardly
> mobile. Politicians play on that by asking, "Are you better off today
than
> you were four years ago?"

That is certainly a possibility and I sincerely hope things will go that way in November 2004. But if you take the "relative deprivation" approach I mentioned in my previous postings things may get a bit complicated than people simply voting with their wallets. An important element in that approach is the blame game. If the Democrats convince these rural/small town/suburban/Southern folks that Bush is to blame - then it will be simple voting with one's wallet. But if Bushies succeed in convincing these people that things are going to the dogs because (i) gays corrupt the nation's moral fabric (we already see a prelude to that) (ii) foreigners are "stealing our jobs" and come here to cause trouble (iii) Europeans are back stabbing us (Bushies have been claiming that since they invaded Iraq) (iv) liberal elites and the likes of Martha Steward are pilfering the economy and (v) all of the above - the "middle Amerika" may start marching in goose step behind Bush.

I hear from my neighbors and friends, teachers, social workers etc. who are much "middle of the road politically" and "the mainstream middle class" than I am - that "Americans are going crazy" (that is a quote) and that makes them fearful that we will have 4 more years of Bush.

Wojtek



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