[lbo-talk] From 2000 to 2004 (Re: Ralph the rightwinger)

Luke Weiger lweiger at umich.edu
Tue Mar 23 10:56:53 PST 2004


----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>


> My trusty election model, which historically has an 80% accuracy,
> predicted Gore to win by a wide margin. (Its inputs are the annual
> growth rate in after-tax personal income and the president's approval
> rating in the spring before the election.) So the election was his to
> lose, and he did. Sorta.
>
> Doug

Did your model take accouint of the megalomaniac spoiler variable? That subtracted oh, maybe 2 million votes (and the electoral votes of three or four states) from Gore's total.

-- Luke



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