[lbo-talk] more on China trade

[Doug Henwood]

Apropos Nathan's argument that a surge of cheap imports from China 
might not be properly measured by expressing them as a percent of 
nominal GDP, I looked at whether there was any surge in real imports, 
which are corrected for price changes to capture pure volume effects. 
If the same goods as before were being imported at cheaper prices, 
the nominal volume would decline but the real volume would remain 
unchanged. Here are real imports expressed as a percent of real GDp 
for the last several years:

IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES
AS PERCENT OF GDP, 20004

             total    goods   services
1999        14.1%    11.8%    2.3%
2000        15.0%    12.7%    2.4%
2001        14.2%    11.9%    2.3%
2002        14.2%    11.9%    2.3%
2003        14.0%    11.9%    2.2%

Note that offshoring would appear as an import of services, and 
there's been no surge in those either.

Doug