>On Tue, 30 Mar 2004, mike larkin wrote:
>
>> Anyone got an explanation for this? I'm ready to go back on the Prozac.
>
>Here's one explanation from the Slate newsletter Today's Papers:
>
><excerpt>
>
>USA Today leads with a poll that has President Bush ahead of Senator Kerry
>49 percent to 45 percent with Ralph Nader at 4 percent. The poll claims
>that in 17 battleground states where Bush has launched an ad barrage,
>Kerry went from a 28 point lead to 6 points behind.
>
><end excerpt>
>
>In other words, the polls changed because only one side has been
>campaigning this week. Kerry has been on vacation for the last ten days,
>first skiing and now recovering from an operation.
>
>But the I think main tonic for your nerves is: don't take early polls so
>seriously, and especially not week to week swings in early polls. The
>main outlines are all that matters now: that it's an open race.
>
>I think the Clarke stuff will matter in the long run. It's knocking out
>Bush's main plank. People in the center are still confused by the
>counterbarrage; it will take a while for it to sink in they've really got
>nothing to refute him with. If if Bush can't bang that drum without fear
>of injuring himself, he hasn't got much else. If 9/11 ceases to be a plus
>for him, having scheduled the latest convention on record and holding it
>in New York might turn out to be a really dreadful campaign plan.
>
>Michael