[lbo-talk] American dominance: growth or shrinkage? (was, Cultural change?)

[Dennis Redmond]

> this doesn't mean the United States is due
> for an imminent fall as I think you're saying.

I'm not an alarmist by nature, but the numbers are what they are. No
country can run 5% current account deficits forever, while systematically
underinvesting relative to its leading competitors. (Budget deficits are
different. The US Treasury can always print greenbacks if it has to. But
the US Treasury can't print euros or yen.) Sooner or later, the bills will
come due, and then the US will suddenly become 25-35% poorer than it
nominally is. It doesn't have to mean a Great Depression; it could just
mean a 30% appreciation of the East Asian currencies (say, 85 yen to the
dollar).

-- DRR