MOSCOW, May 7 (UPI) -- Diplomacy and mutual self-interest resolved what could have turned into another civil war in the former Soviet republic of Georgia this week. Though diplomacy and self-interest had nothing to do with Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili and local strongman Aslan Abashidze ruler of the breakaway province Adzharia -- it was Russia and the United States that resolved the crisis.
It remains an open question if Saakashvili will be able to finally rein in the two remaining provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but Georgia, Russia, and the United States can claim a sorely needed diplomatic victory with the ouster of Abashidze.
After months of threats and confrontations with Tbilisi, Aslan Abashidze, Adzharia's strongman for 13 years, lost the confidence of not only his major patron -- Moscow, but also the people he ruled over with an iron fist. The combination of a provocative massing of Georgian troops on the Adzharia border, Abashidze's order to destroy bridges connecting Adzharia to the rest of the country, and the believed mining of petroleum facilities in the port city of Batumi, also located in Adzharia, finally convinced the Russia foreign policy establishment that protecting Abashidze not longer made sense.
Saakashvili had made re-uniting his conflict-ridden country the key priority of his young presidency. This week he can claim he is making good on this priority. However, Russia and the United States have very different interests in the region and agreeing to jointly resolve this week's crisis in Georgia may be an indication that both countries have made a deal concerning Georgia's near-term future.
Russia continues to view the Black Sea region as part of its sphere of influence. With Georgia's sovereignty far from complete and Chechnya neighboring Georgia, Russia has every reason to be mindful of this violate region. Russian support of Adzharia's Aslan Abashidze was not simply a thorn used to destabilize Georgia, as many have claimed. It was Georgia's own destabilized economy and politics that in many ways forced Russia to have a client there as well as military bases there.
Moscow and Tbilisi continue to have many disagreements, but Russia's involvement to peacefully resolve the Adzharia crisis is a positive sign that it supports Saakashvili's commitment to return order to his country since the "Rose Revolution" last year.
The United States views Georgia as partner in the war against international terrorism and an important transit point securing non-Middle Eastern petroleum to western markets. With the removal of Abashidze from power and the return of Adzharia to Georgian central government control, it is expected the BP PLC-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline being built from the Caspian Sea to Turkey's Mediterranean coast will go forward unimpeded. Georgia, for the most part bankrupt, will receive an oil transit fee and the United States a new and secure source of oil.
Many Kremlin hawks predictably claimed that Russia again was selling-out to American encroachments in Russia's backyard. However, Russia's hand may now be stronger in the region today than anytime since the collapse of the Soviet Union. To avoid bloodshed and enact a "regime change" in Adzharia, Russia probably made fewer concessions than Georgia or the United States.
The deal made to promote Saakashvili's and American interests may have come at a high cost. First, it is believed that the U.S. promised Russia it would not strengthen its military presence in Georgia. Second, Russia's military bases in Adzharia, a sore point with Tbilisi, will remain. Third, and most importantly, Saakashvili most likely agreed -- pressured by the United States, to lower the rhetoric, if not policy objective, concerning the return to central control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Sacrificing Abashidze appears to have made Russia a net winner in this crisis.
Additionally, Abashidze and Adzharia have always been Russia's weakest card in the region. The ethnic make-up of Adzharia is decidedly Georgian, which cannot be said of South Ossetia and Abkhazia -- both of which aim to unite with Russia.
If the above pact was made, it is Saakashvili who will have to bear the highest political cost. His "Rose Revolution" is to recreate a united Georgia. By making a deal to return Adzharia to the fold, Saakashvili makes Georgian unity and the future success of the "Rose Revolution" extremely problematic.
In the meantime, American military trainers will remain in Georgia and a valuable new energy source will soon be on line. Georgia, Russia, and the United States can claim a diplomatic victory this week. However, Russia can claim even more -- international respect.
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