American Public Opinion About the Situation in Iraq Tuesday, May 11, 2004
Basic War Support
Forty-four percent of Americans say it was worth going to war in Iraq, according to a May 7-9 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, while a majority of Americans, 54%, say it was not worth it. The current results show a six-point decrease in the public's support of the war since the beginning of May, and the lowest level of support that Gallup has recorded since the war in Iraq began in March 2003. The drop in war support is probably due, at least in part, to the recent allegations that U.S. soldiers have abused Iraqi prisoners.
Public support for the war had been declining over the past several months, but it had been holding steady above the 50% mark. The percentage of Americans who said it was worth going to war in Iraq averaged 54% in January and early February, 56% in March, and then decreased to 51% in April. In the poll conducted May 2-4, exactly 50% of Americans said it was worth going to war in Iraq.
A Mistake Sending Troops?
While support for the war in Iraq has declined in the May 7-9 poll, Americans do not necessarily say it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq. The current poll finds 44% of Americans saying it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq, while 54% say it was not a mistake. Some Americans may be somewhat reluctant to term the war a "mistake," even though frustrations with the way things are going may cause them to say it was not worth it. This may be evident in the fact that the results of the mistake question have been fairly stable this year -- ranging from 42% to 44% calling it a mistake -- while the "worth it" measure has shown more change.
If a majority ever comes to call the decision to send troops to Iraq a mistake, it will be telling. Only during the Vietnam War did a majority of Americans consistently call a war involving U.S. troops "a mistake." (One poll during the Korean War found a majority calling the war a mistake, but that fell back to below a majority by the next poll.)
President Bush's Approval on Iraq
George W. Bush's approval ratings on handling the situation in Iraq have reached an all-time low. The May 7-9 poll shows 41% of Americans approve of Bush's handling of Iraq, while 58% disapprove. Last week, in Gallup's May 2-4 survey, 42% approved and 55% disapproved.
Bush's approval ratings on Iraq have fluctuated throughout the year. In early January, 61% of Americans approved of Bush's handling of Iraq, but this dropped to 46% by late January/early February. By the end of March, Bush's ratings on Iraq improved somewhat, to 51%. Bush's ratings on Iraq then decreased slightly, to 48%, in mid-April.
Although Bush's approval ratings on Iraq have declined in the latest poll, it does not mean that Americans think presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry would do a better job than Bush of handling the situation in Iraq. The poll shows that 48% of Americans say Bush would do the better job on Iraq, compared with 45% who say this of Kerry. Bush had a 15-point edge over Kerry (54% to 39%, respectively) on Iraq in March, so Bush clearly is losing ground in this respect.