[lbo-talk] Stupid Elections, Leftist Cowards

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Nov 2 07:02:43 PST 2004


Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:


>Structural constraints surely exist, but there is also the shining
>example of Venezuela. The Hugo Chávez government and its supporters
>tried a kind of left program, confronted a series of backlashes
>(from a capital strike, a coup, lockouts, mass media propaganda, to
>a recall initiative), and survived them all -- without resorting to
>dictatorship, no less -- to continue the Bolivarian process.

True, but Venezuela produces almost 3 million barrels a day of oil, which at $50 a barrel amounts to about $55 billion a year. That means much lower debt and debt service ratios, as the table below shows - and much less need for foreign financing in the first place. (Note that Argentina has big debts, but by not servicing them, the debt service ratio is low.)

=============================================================== FOREIGN DEBT MEASURES, 2002

Argentina Brazil Uruguay Venezuela PV of debt (% of GNI) 66.2 47.9 65.0 32.6 TDS

% of XGS 18.3 68.9 40.0 25.6

% of GNI 6.1 11.7 10.5 8.2

PV = present value GNI = gross national income TDS = total debt service (interest + principal) XGS = exports of goods & services ===============================================================

Of course, these aren't exactly relevant to U.S. politics. But I brought it up to counter the frequent left habit of treating political behavior to will and fidelity rather than studying the material constraints on actors.

Doug



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