[lbo-talk] turnout, 4 PM numbers

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Nov 2 14:55:12 PST 2004


via <http://race2004.net>:

Slate magazine has 4pm exit polls for today.

Again, these are VERY unreliable. But more reliable than the 2pm exit polls.

State: Bush - Kerry

Nevada: 50 - 48

Colorado: 53 - 46

North Carolina: 51 - 49

Pennsylvania: 45 - 54

Ohio: 49 - 50

Florida: 49 - 50

Michigan: 47 - 51

New Mexico: 48 - 50

Wisconsin: 46 - 51

Much tighter since the 2pm races, but Kerry still has the lead electorally.

---

Here are some early turnout reports from CNN.

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush. Based on early (11:43am) data, Zogby says to watch Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania for possible surprises. This is undoubtedly based on his phone polling today, not exit polling. But since some of these people will have voted today, his polls may find some intriguing results.

No prediction is made what the surprises may be, but since Virginia looks to be Bush, it may be a strong Kerry showing. No idea what it'll be in the other states, as they're all battlegrounds and fairly close.



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