Friday, Oct 22, 2004
Nuclear power in Asia
By M.R. Srinivasan
The time has come for India, Russia, China, and Pakistan to harmonise their nuclear security and energy development policies.
SOME 35 years ago, two nuclear power units at Tarapur started supplying power to the grids of Maharashtra and Gujarat. India was the first country in Asia (excluding the former Soviet Union) to harness nuclear energy commercially for power production. Japan followed a few years later using U.S. nuclear technology, as indeed India did for Tarapur. Taiwan and South Korea followed suit, also using U.S.-derived nuclear technology. South Korea additionally went in for some Canadian nuclear units as India did with greater commitment. A feature common to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan is their near total dependence on imported energy sources.
It was not until the 1990s that China began to use nuclear electricity. It has received technology from France, Russia and Canada and developed its own technology in a limited way. Pakistan imported a small nuclear power unit from Canada in the 1960s; recently a Chinese-built unit entered into service and a second one is being built. The United States built a nuclear power unit in the Philippines in the 1980s but it never functioned; it got entangled in the corruption of the Marcos era.
At the 'International Conference on Fifty years of Nuclear Power - the Next Fifty Years' (June 27 to July 2, 2004), the International Atomic Energy Agency noted that 22 of the last 31 nuclear power plants connected to the world's electricity grids were built in Asia. What is equally impressive is that of the 27 nuclear power plants now under construction globally, 18 are in Asia (nine of them in India).
In the early decades of nuclear power development, namely from the 1960s through the 1980s, there was rapid construction of nuclear power units in the U.S., Europe, the Soviet Union, and Japan. The nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island in the U.S. in the late 1970s, and at Chernobyl, USSR, in 1986 led to a strong anti-nuclear sentiment in the U.S. and Europe. In the aftermath of these two mishaps, the global nuclear community embarked on a programme of active exchange of operating practices to improve safety at all nuclear power plants worldwide. The World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) came into existence and resulted in peer reviews and rapid transmittal of safety related experience among plant operators.
However, as a result of the erosion of public confidence, very few new nuclear units were taken up for construction in the U.S. and Europe, with the notable exception of France. The other countries shifted to gas-based generation using combined cycle plants, which could be constructed at lower cost and in shorter time while giving high thermal efficiency. Natural gas transported through pipelines from the North Sea, Russia, the Middle East, and Central Asia has powered electricity generation in Europe and North Africa.
Unfortunately, the rapidly growing Asian economies of China and India have so far had access only to limited amounts of natural gas. China may access gas from Russia, and India from Iran and Central Asia if a trans-Pakistan pipeline comes into existence. Nevertheless, these two large economies require large inputs of energy to sustain their high economic growth rates. Both these countries depend at present to a significant extent on coal for power generation and will continue to do so for the next couple of decades. They both wish to shift reliance progressively to nuclear power because of concerns on growing carbon dioxide emissions and on depletion of hydrocarbons accompanied by rising prices.
Among the Asian countries, Japan went in a big way to develop nuclear power. Japanese companies, Hitachi, Toshiba and Mitsubishi collaborated with General Electric (for Boiling Water Reactors) and Westinghouse (for Pressurised Water Reactors) of the U.S. and established a strong nuclear power industry. In two decades, nuclear energy contributed to about 25 per cent of electric power generation. Large nuclear power parks with generating capacities of 5,000 to 8,000 MW, consisting of four to eight units, were established. After an initial phase of learning, the Japanese nuclear units operated efficiently and in a safe manner, marked by Japanese thoroughness. In recent times, however, there have been some incidents attributed to laxity.
The first nuclear power unit in South Korea began operations in 1977. As of the end of 2002, 19 units with an aggregate generating capacity of about 16,000 MW were brought into operation. Many of these units are Pressurised Water Reactors based on U.S. technology and some on French technology. Four of them are based on Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor technology, obtained from Canada. In the 1990s, Korea implemented a massive programme of localisation and five units commissioned in the 1998-2002 period were built by the Korean nuclear industry. At present, 40 per cent of Korea's electricity is from nuclear energy.
Taiwan built nuclear power units many years ago, based on U.S. technology and has operated them efficiently, supplying some 40 per cent of its electricity needs. China, by contrast, made a late start, with its first unit going into operation in the 1990s. It has an operating capacity of about 6,500 MW, and 2,000 MW are under construction. The China National Nuclear Corporation is planning to build eight more units, to double the present operating capacity. China is cooperating with France and Russia for Pressurised Water Reactors and with Canada for Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors. China has scaled up the designs of a submarine nuclear power plant, of the Pressurised Water type, to build a commercial unit of 300 MW. One such reactor has been supplied to Pakistan and a second similar unit is under construction.
Pakistan built a PHWR reactor of Canadian origin that went into operation in the late 1960s. But it has been riddled with many equipment problems and remained out of service for long periods of time. Pakistan is operating a Chinese-built 300 MW PWR and is building a second 300 MW unit and may eventually build the Chinese 600 MW PWRs.
The present operating nuclear capacity in India is about 3,000 MW, a very slow progress indeed considering that our first nuclear power units went into operation in 1969. India chose to build its nuclear power units on its own, after importing two units at Tarapur from the U.S. and two in Rajasthan from Canada. There was the inevitable learning period in mastering a complex technology and creating the necessary industrial capability. Our projects have suffered delays and disruptions due to embargoes and sanctions in the wake of the nuclear tests, Pokhran I and II. The pace of the nuclear power programme suffered due to lack of support during the tenures of Prime Ministers V.P. Singh, Chandra Shekhar and P.V. Narasimha Rao. There was a revival under Prime Ministers H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral and Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
At present, nine nuclear power units are under construction at various sites in the country. It is fortuitous that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was the Finance Member of the Atomic Energy Commission in one of his earlier assignments. India is hoping to increase the nuclear power capacity to some 20,000 MW by 2020. Projections of India's power requirements show that the nuclear capacity should increase to some 200,000 MW by 2050.
In the next two decades, India plans to build a series of 700 MW PHWRs and 500 MW Fast Breeder Reactors, scaled up to 1000 MW after the first four. India is hoping to cooperate with Russia and France to build a number of 1000 MW PWRs. It would be in the enlightened self-interest of these two countries to cooperate with India, in view of the big market on offer. India expects to be able to export its 220 MW PHWRs to developing countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Sri Lanka, which may wish to enter the field of civilian nuclear power.
India is destined to emerge as one of the leading nuclear power technology countries in the world in the next two to four decades. In particular, it will be a leader in the technologies of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors and Fast Breeder Reactors. Present international control regimes, namely the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and its offshoots, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (also called the Landon Club), and the Energy Regime, were all crafted by the U.S. Neither the objective of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons nor the development of civilian nuclear power has effectively been achieved.
The time has come for India, Russia, China, and Pakistan to harmonise their nuclear security and energy development policies, while pursuing the ultimate objective of universal nuclear disarmament. Once these four countries agree to a framework of mutually beneficial cooperation, the participation could be extended to include France, Germany, Japan and South Korea. We could then enlarge the benign use of the atom as a source of energy in the Asia-Europe land mass and firmly chain in the destructive potential.
(The writer is a former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission.)
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