A Thousand Fallujahs
By Pepe Escobar
Asia Times
Thursday 11 November 2004
<snip>
In 1999, the Russians bombed and destroyed Grozny, the Chechen capital, a city of originally 400,000 people. Five years later, Chechen guerrillas are still trapping Russian troops in a living hell there. The same scenario will be replayed in Fallujah - a city of originally 300,000 people. All this destruction - which any self-respecting international lawyer can argue is a war crime - for the Bush administration to send a brutal message: either you're with us or we'll smash you to pieces.
The Iraqi resistance does not care if thousands of mujahideen are smashed to pieces: it is actually gearing up for a major strategic victory. The strategy is twofold: half of the Fallujah resistance stayed behind, ready to die like martyrs, increasing the already boiling-point hatred of Americans in Iraq and the Middle East and boosting their urban support. The other half left before Phantom Fury and is already setting fires in Baghdad, Tikrit, Ramadi, Baquba, Balad, Kirkuk, Mosul and even Shi'ite Karbala.
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As the days wear on, this looks more and more to be the situation.
Indeed, even 'news' coming from "embedded reporters" if parsed in detail, reveal the situation is not under control as the Pentagon would like us to believe.
Tonight, for example, I listened to NPR's Anne Garrels, attached with a Marine battalion, make two contradictory statements.
The first was when she quoted the Marine commander of the operation, saying that "80 percent of Fallujah is under American control. The terrorists are cornered in the city's south." But quickly, after saying this and in response to a direct question from her Washington-based colleague - "does the US control the territory it moves through?" - her answer was sharply direct: "no".
She then went on to describe what students of guerrilla war will find shockingly familiar - "shockingly" because it was all so predictable you're astounded the Americans believed their cornucopia of death gizmos would erase the basic, and long understood, facts of guerrilla war. Marines move rapidly through streets, encountering light or no resistance until they find themselves in some ambush perfect area. Then all hell breaks loose with mortar, RPG and kalishinakov fire coming from many directions. Because the guerrillas seem to have Soviet made armor piercing RPGs at their disposal even tanks fail provide to the impregnable cover everyone expected.
Casualties mount, the Marines fall back to call in air strikes and artillery. Buildings disappear. Command issues a press release saying that a "pocket of resistance" has been vaporized. But a few clicks on the Marines discover that those fighters who weren't killed in the barrage have repositioned and regrouped, waiting for another chance to strike. A principle of nature is witnessed: overwhelming, brutal force is excellent for killing but far less so for controlling.
...
Of course, a city that held, until quite recently, a population of approximately 300 thousand could easily swallow up an invading force of 15 thousand. Yes, even 15 thousand of the best mecha equipped destroyers on this side of the galaxy.
So, unless you're willing to use atomics this is the most likely outcome of your offensive.
Someone predicted, when all this began, that the US would find itself facing a series of West Bank scenarios, only on a much larger and more intense scale.
This seems to be taking shape right before our tired eyes.
.d.