To the Editor:
Regarding "Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked," by Thom Hartmann
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
Jasjeet Sekhon <jasjeet_sekhon at harvard.edu>, Jonathan Wand <wand at stanford.edu> and I <wrm1 at cornell.edu> have looked into the allegation of vote fraud involving optical scan voting machines in the 2004 presidential election voting in Florida. Based on the data shown below, we conclude that allegation is baseless. Instead, the pattern in which counties that have high Democratic registration had high percentage increases in the vote for Bush reflects the fact that all those counties have trended strongly Republican over the past twelve years. The counties are mostly in the Florida Panhandle. Given the voting history and registration trends, these counties seem to have many old-style southern Democrats who have not bothered to change their registration.
The story
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
refers to data originally posted at
http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/
in particular at
http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/Campaign2006/SurprisingFloridaPresidentialElectionResults.htm
In the following tables, (E) or (O) after the county name indicates whether the voting machine was E-Touch or Op-Scan. The column labeled DemChg04 is the Percent Change Dem statistic from table at the aforementioned link. Columns DemV00, DemV96 and DemV92 give the proportion of votes cast for the Democratic presidential candidate in election years 2000, 1996 and 1992. Columns DemR04, DemR00 and DemR96 give the proportion of voters registered Democratic in 2004, 2000 and 1996, and columns RepR04, RepR00 and RepR96 give the proportion registered Republican.
You can see that the counties that have big negative values for DemChg04 have had low proportions voting Democratic but high proportions registered Democratic going all the way back to 1992 (Table 1). The proportion registered Democratic has been decreasing, albeit slowly, while the proportion registered Republican has been increasing, again slowly (Table 2).
Table 1: 2004 Vote Share Changes, Previous Years' Democratic Vote and Registration Shares
DemChg04 DemV00 DemV96 DemV92 DemR04 DemR00 DemR96 Broward (E) 27.5 0.67 0.64 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.53 Charlotte (E) 34.6 0.44 0.43 0.37 0.32 0.34 0.36 Collier (E) 40.0 0.32 0.32 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.25 Miami-Dade (E) 25.4 0.53 0.57 0.47 0.43 0.44 0.48 Hillsborough (E) 11.0 0.47 0.47 0.37 0.42 0.44 0.48 Indian River (E) 30.0 0.40 0.37 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.33 Lake (E) 13.6 0.41 0.40 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.37 Lee (E) 33.7 0.40 0.40 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 Martin (E) 51.5 0.43 0.38 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28 Nassau (E) -28.9 0.29 0.34 0.30 0.37 0.48 0.56 Palm Beach (E) 34.8 0.62 0.58 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46 Pasco (E) 18.9 0.49 0.50 0.39 0.37 0.40 0.43 Pinellas (E) 30.8 0.50 0.49 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.39 Sarasota (E) 45.0 0.45 0.43 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 Sumter (E) -10.9 0.43 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.48 0.57 Alachua (O) 11.1 0.55 0.54 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.57 Baker (O) -68.4 0.29 0.34 0.29 0.69 0.83 0.89 Bay (O) -28.3 0.32 0.33 0.28 0.39 0.48 0.54 Bradford (O) -51.3 0.35 0.41 0.37 0.61 0.70 0.77 Brevard (O) 13.7 0.45 0.41 0.31 0.37 0.38 0.40 Calhoun (O) -56.9 0.42 0.43 0.37 0.82 0.88 0.91 Citrus (O) 8.3 0.45 0.44 0.36 0.39 0.41 0.46 Clay (O) -9.2 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.31 Columbia (O) -43.1 0.38 0.41 0.37 0.57 0.64 0.68 DeSoto (O) -30.6 0.43 0.43 0.36 0.59 0.64 0.70 Dixie (O) -60.7 0.39 0.46 0.43 0.77 0.86 0.89 Duval (O) -9.9 0.41 0.44 0.37 0.46 0.50 0.54 Escambia (O) -17.1 0.35 0.35 0.31 0.41 0.46 0.51 Flagler (O) 26.6 0.51 0.48 0.41 0.38 0.40 0.42 Franklin (O) -47.7 0.44 0.46 0.35 0.77 0.81 0.87 Gadsden (O) -15.8 0.66 0.66 0.59 0.83 0.85 0.88 Gilchrist (O) -50.9 0.35 0.41 0.38 0.59 0.72 0.78 Glades (O) -35.6 0.43 0.45 0.39 0.65 0.69 0.76 Gulf (O) -50.8 0.39 0.41 0.33 0.67 0.79 0.84 Hamilton (O) -43.6 0.43 0.47 0.44 0.79 0.86 0.91 Hardee (O) -53.5 0.38 0.39 0.31 0.64 0.73 0.79 Hendry (O) -28.3 0.40 0.44 0.34 0.57 0.63 0.66 Hernando (O) 19.0 0.50 0.49 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.42 Highlands (O) -3.1 0.40 0.42 0.35 0.40 0.42 0.45 Holmes (O) -70.0 0.29 0.34 0.29 0.73 0.83 0.90 Jackson (O) -46.7 0.42 0.43 0.37 0.72 0.79 0.82 Jefferson (O) -23.6 0.54 0.53 0.49 0.72 0.79 0.83 Lafayette (O) -69.3 0.31 0.36 0.34 0.83 0.89 0.94 Leon (O) 8.7 0.60 0.55 0.49 0.57 0.59 0.61 Levy (O) -38.9 0.42 0.45 0.40 0.60 0.67 0.72 Liberty (O) -59.9 0.42 0.40 0.32 0.88 0.94 0.96 Madison (O) -38.7 0.49 0.50 0.45 0.80 0.84 0.86 Manatee (O) 29.1 0.45 0.43 0.34 0.33 0.35 0.37 Marion (O) 3.2 0.43 0.41 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.45 Monroe (O) 37.6 0.49 0.47 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.44 Okaloosa (O) -12.7 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.25 0.28 0.32 Okeechobee (O) -27.7 0.47 0.49 0.37 0.58 0.65 0.69 Orange (O) 23.9 0.50 0.46 0.35 0.40 0.41 0.41 Osceola (O) 18.8 0.51 0.47 0.33 0.40 0.42 0.44 Polk (O) -4.2 0.45 0.44 0.35 0.43 0.46 0.50 Putnam (O) -30.6 0.46 0.48 0.42 0.58 0.63 0.67 St.Johns (O) 8.0 0.32 0.34 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.39 St.Lucie (O) 26.5 0.53 0.49 0.35 0.41 0.41 0.44 Santa Rosa (O) -22.5 0.25 0.26 0.20 0.28 0.35 0.44 Seminole (O) 27.9 0.43 0.39 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.35 Suwannee (O) -55.0 0.33 0.37 0.35 0.64 0.71 0.76 Taylor (O) -53.0 0.39 0.45 0.36 0.76 0.82 0.87 Union (O) -64.5 0.37 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.84 0.91 Volusia (O) 25.7 0.53 0.49 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.46 Wakulla (O) -37.7 0.45 0.43 0.35 0.67 0.74 0.80 Walton (O) -29.5 0.31 0.34 0.29 0.37 0.53 0.63 Washington (O) -58.1 0.35 0.38 0.32 0.67 0.74 0.82
Table 2: 2004 Vote Share Changes, Previous Years' Democratic and Republican Registration Shares
DemChg04 DemR04 DemR00 DemR96 RepR04 RepR00 RepR96 Broward (E) 27.5 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.27 0.30 0.33 Charlotte (E) 34.6 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.45 0.48 0.52 Collier (E) 40.0 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.53 0.57 0.62 Miami-Dade (E) 25.4 0.43 0.44 0.48 0.35 0.38 0.39 Hillsborough (E) 11.0 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.35 0.37 0.38 Indian River (E) 30.0 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.51 0.54 0.57 Lake (E) 13.6 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.47 0.49 0.51 Lee (E) 33.7 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.48 0.49 0.52 Martin (E) 51.5 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.52 0.56 0.60 Nassau (E) -28.9 0.37 0.48 0.56 0.49 0.41 0.37 Palm Beach (E) 34.8 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.32 0.35 0.39 Pasco (E) 18.9 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.40 0.41 0.43 Pinellas (E) 30.8 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.45 Sarasota (E) 45.0 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.48 0.52 0.56 Sumter (E) -10.9 0.41 0.48 0.57 0.44 0.38 0.34 Alachua (O) 11.1 0.51 0.53 0.57 0.28 0.28 0.30 Baker (O) -68.4 0.69 0.83 0.89 0.24 0.14 0.09 Bay (O) -28.3 0.39 0.48 0.54 0.44 0.37 0.34 Bradford (O) -51.3 0.61 0.70 0.77 0.28 0.21 0.16 Brevard (O) 13.7 0.37 0.38 0.40 0.45 0.46 0.48 Calhoun (O) -56.9 0.82 0.88 0.91 0.12 0.08 0.07 Citrus (O) 8.3 0.39 0.41 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.41 Clay (O) -9.2 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.57 0.56 0.56 Columbia (O) -43.1 0.57 0.64 0.68 0.31 0.26 0.25 DeSoto (O) -30.6 0.59 0.64 0.70 0.25 0.24 0.24 Dixie (O) -60.7 0.77 0.86 0.89 0.15 0.10 0.08 Duval (O) -9.9 0.46 0.50 0.54 0.37 0.36 0.35 Escambia (O) -17.1 0.41 0.46 0.51 0.44 0.41 0.40 Flagler (O) 26.6 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.44 Franklin (O) -47.7 0.77 0.81 0.87 0.16 0.14 0.10 Gadsden (O) -15.8 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.11 0.10 0.09 Gilchrist (O) -50.9 0.59 0.72 0.78 0.30 0.20 0.17 Glades (O) -35.6 0.65 0.69 0.76 0.25 0.22 0.19 Gulf (O) -50.8 0.67 0.79 0.84 0.27 0.16 0.13 Hamilton (O) -43.6 0.79 0.86 0.91 0.15 0.10 0.07 Hardee (O) -53.5 0.64 0.73 0.79 0.27 0.21 0.17 Hendry (O) -28.3 0.57 0.63 0.66 0.31 0.28 0.26 Hernando (O) 19.0 0.39 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.45 Highlands (O) -3.1 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.44 0.45 0.45 Holmes (O) -70.0 0.73 0.83 0.90 0.21 0.13 0.08 Jackson (O) -46.7 0.72 0.79 0.82 0.22 0.16 0.14 Jefferson (O) -23.6 0.72 0.79 0.83 0.21 0.15 0.13 Lafayette (O) -69.3 0.83 0.89 0.94 0.13 0.08 0.05 Leon (O) 8.7 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.27 0.27 0.27 Levy (O) -38.9 0.60 0.67 0.72 0.28 0.24 0.22 Liberty (O) -59.9 0.88 0.94 0.96 0.08 0.04 0.03 Madison (O) -38.7 0.80 0.84 0.86 0.15 0.12 0.11 Manatee (O) 29.1 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.50 Marion (O) 3.2 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.43 Monroe (O) 37.6 0.36 0.39 0.44 0.39 0.39 0.40 Okaloosa (O) -12.7 0.25 0.28 0.32 0.57 0.56 0.56 Okeechobee (O) -27.7 0.58 0.65 0.69 0.30 0.27 0.24 Orange (O) 23.9 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.35 0.40 0.44 Osceola (O) 18.8 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.33 0.36 0.40 Polk (O) -4.2 0.43 0.46 0.50 0.39 0.39 0.40 Putnam (O) -30.6 0.58 0.63 0.67 0.28 0.26 0.25 St.Johns (O) 8.0 0.28 0.34 0.39 0.53 0.50 0.49 St.Lucie (O) 26.5 0.41 0.41 0.44 0.37 0.39 0.41 Santa Rosa (O) -22.5 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.56 0.52 0.47 Seminole (O) 27.9 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.45 0.48 0.52 Suwannee (O) -55.0 0.64 0.71 0.76 0.27 0.22 0.19 Taylor (O) -53.0 0.76 0.82 0.87 0.19 0.14 0.11 Union (O) -64.5 0.75 0.84 0.91 0.18 0.12 0.07 Volusia (O) 25.7 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.36 0.38 0.40 Wakulla (O) -37.7 0.67 0.74 0.80 0.24 0.19 0.15 Walton (O) -29.5 0.37 0.53 0.63 0.50 0.35 0.29 Washington (O) -58.1 0.67 0.74 0.82 0.25 0.19 0.14
Walter Mebane
-- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * Walter R. Mebane, Jr. email: wrm1 at cornell.edu Professor office voice: 607/255-3868 Department of Government cell: 607/592-0546 Cornell University fax: 607/255-4530 217 White Hall WWW: http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/wrm1/ Ithaca, NY 14853-7901 * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - *
``Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked,'' by Thom Hartmann
http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/
The original table that sparked the controversy: or here:
For two technical but also more rigorous statistical analyses that support our conclusion that there was no effect of machine type (Op-Scan versus E-Touch), see an analysis using a matching estimator, by Jasjeet Sekhon and an analysis using a robust binomial regression estimator, by Jonathan Wand. The data used in those papers is available here. -- Michael Pugliese