-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rant: Ukraine’s unspoken political confrontation By Peter Lavelle Published on November 25, 2004 Did Ukraine’s presidential runoff fail last Sunday? Yes. Do a lot of Ukrainians feel betrayed? Yes. Has democracy in Ukraine been put to the test and failed. Most probably yes. However, almost no one in Western media has considered the unspoken political confrontation in play in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have discovered political activism, while a small number of oligarch clans maneuver to continue their grip over Ukraine’s economy and politics.
“It’s the economy, stupid” and not democracy that is at the center of Ukraine’s present turmoil.
Western media and politicians want the world to know they know best for Ukraine’s democracy. However, few of the same pundits know much about what makes politics tick in Ukraine. The lecturing from the West will have the world believe Viktor Yushchenko, Viktor Yanukovych, and Leonid Kuchma are the real and most important players in Ukraine’s political drama. This is not the case. Other names and oligarchic empires are those really calling the shots. Yulia Timoshenko has spun herself as a democrat, but in fact is an oligarch. Rinat Ahmetov and Semyon Mogilevitch, almost never mentioned in the context of Ukraine’s current political travails, are also oligarchs. These three and few others are behind Ukraine’s politics – they are in competition to control the country’s economy.
Viktor Yushchenko may have been popularly elected as president on Sunday, but he is no angel or an icon of Western transparency. A politician called a “fresh start” in the West is accused of stealing over $120 million from the National Bank. He may be an economic reformer, but there are questions surrounding his tenure as central bank governor. The “savior” of Ukraine’s democracy is also believed by some to have twisted the General Prosecutor’s arm to drop charges against a one Timoshenko on charges of fraud and embezzlement of $2 billion related to Russian natural gas contracts.
Timoshenko and her oligarchic clan have primary economic interests in western Ukraine. It is not surprising she has thrown her support behind Yushchenko. The Timoshenko clan is in sharp competition with the eastern oligarch clan controlled by Rinat Ahmetov – supporting the political ambitions of Yanukovych. With Ukraine’s economy, primarily in the east, experiencing very respectable growth and prospects Ahmetov is a kingpin that cannot be ignored.
Semyon Mogilevitch and his group are players as well. Having a strong hold on Kuchma, he is attempting to mediate the interests of the western and eastern oligarch clans. His interest in politics is to keep oligarchy alive and well in Ukraine.
Speaking of oligarchs, the evil one Boris Berezovsky is believed to have invested considerable sums in the Yushchenko campaign. Berezovsky, exiled Russian oligarch who has never made a dime by creating wealth, most likely hopes to engage in asset stripping in Ukraine if his man becomes president. Of course Berezovsky is also doing anything he can that could damage Vladimir Putin’s political agenda. Other Russian oligarchs are eying the same opportunity – backing Yushchenko to seal assets from the Ahmetov clan and other competing business conglomerates
What is the point of this short rant? The public outcry to defend Ukraine’s democracy is being used to protect and promote the “oligarchic turf war” in Ukraine. The vast majority of Western commentary has no idea what the reality is on the ground in Ukraine. The vast majority is convinced that politics and the future of Ukraine’s democracy, as well as the country’s geopolitical orientation, are at stake. This is an illusion, with the West believing its own PR about democracy to reassure itself has nothing to do with the fate of the average Ukrainian.
Defending democracy is something most of us agree with. However, most commenting on Ukraine’s democracy have little, if any, idea how the concept of democracy is being used to promote and protect the very specific and selfish financial interests of the few.
Western commentators should do a little research about what they write about. They tell us the Cold War has returned and Russia is the enemy again. They tell us everything is black and white. They us that everyone in the world should be like us. By doing so, they completely distort what is happening in Ukraine.
Is my commentary all sour grapes? It is for you to decide. For me, almost everything written about the political struggle in Ukraine misses the point.
In my opinion, it is a tragedy when the idea of democracy is used to promote a small group of oligarchs at the expense of the people who actually believe in the idea. The outside meddlers should also be put on notice for missing the plot being played out in the streets of Ukraine.
(I truly thank A.L. for the recent exchange of emails on this subject).
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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