--- Analysis: Deal-making in Ukraine By Peter Lavelle Published on November 26, 2004 This article was written for UPI - United Press International
MOSCOW, Nov. 26 (UPI) -- With Ukraine's Supreme Court intervening into the country's contested presidential election, opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko and his supporters have been given an important psychological and legal boost. Outside mediators from the European Union have entered the fray to help resolve this political crisis peacefully. Is this all pointing to an eventual Yushchenko victory? Not necessarily, but some kind of deal appears to be in the making.
Ukraine's Supreme Court Thursday ruled against the country's Central Election Commission's publication of its official poll results until the opposition's numerous complaints of election fraud have been reviewed. The count is expected to start its review on Monday. Yushchenko and his supporters responded with jubilance and have interpreted the court's intervention in Ukraine's polarized post-election crisis as evidence that their struggle may prevail. The court has also requested that outgoing President Leonid Kuchma stay until the election crisis is resolved.
Envoys from the European Union -- including Polish President Aleksander Kwiasniewski, the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana, and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus -- are set for talks with Kuchma and Yushchenko.
Also on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin received a strong rebuke from the EU's rotating presidency, currently held by Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, who said: "The election did not meet the international standards." Balkenende added, "Therefore, the EU is not able to accept the results." Putin's responded by saying, "We have no moral right to push a major European country to mass mayhem."
It is unclear just what outside mediators can accomplish. They will see a Kiev that overwhelmingly supports Yushchenko. With protesters surrounding government offices and blocking roads, foreign dignitaries will no doubt see the strength and determination of the opposition. They will also see the latest group to enter the fray -- scores of local police officers have thrown their lot behind Yushchenko. There is no indication outside mediators will visit eastern Ukraine, where Moscow-supported Viktor Yanukovych enjoys greater support.
Yushchenko and his supporters can call Kiev and western Ukraine their own, where some reports said close to a quarter of a million people took to the streets Thursday in support of the pro-Western candidate, Yushchenko.
Yanukovych, on the other hand, claims more support in Ukraine's heavily industrialized and Russian-speaking east. This is why a deal will probably be brokered that will not satisfy everyone, but put to an end Ukraine's heated political deadlock.
The Supreme Court's decision to bar official publication buys time for the political and financial elites to find some common ground. The court's review could take weeks. Protests in Kiev are expected to continue, but backroom haggling could slowly diminish Yushchenko's populist drive to power.
What could be in the works? Kuchma still holds many strong cards, and it is extremely doubtful he will support the recounting of votes. Still president, he could move to rearrange Ukraine's political institutions, particularly diminishing the power of the presidency and significantly enhancing the position of parliament. Such plans have been mulled before.
This could make possible a Yushchenko presidency, with a prime minister representing the majority of oligarch interests that support Kuchma and Yanukovych. Stated differently, it is possible western Ukraine will win the prize of the presidency and the more affluent eastern Ukraine will win a more powerful parliament.
Yushchenko and Yanukovych may be forced to accept this arrangement. This may be the only arrangement to keep Ukraine from falling apart into separate sovereign states. Yushchenko knows he can count on Kiev and western Ukraine for support -- but little else. He appreciates the support he is receiving from the West, but also knows it probably won't significantly influence the drama Ukraine is experiencing.
If he is hoping to repeat the revolutions that changed regimes in Serbia and Georgia, he surely will be disappointed. There is no indication the opposition will be able to broker a deal with the military, security forces, and the country's most important and influential oligarchs. All three groups countrywide need to be won over to his cause for Yushchenko to succeed.
Yanukovych is in much the same position. Since the runoff election, the central government is losing administrative control over western Ukraine. He can count on strong support from most of the military, most of the security forces, and eastern located oligarchs. However, Yanukovych would be shunned, if not denounced, if he attempted to govern as president from Kiev.
Kuchma's plan, supported by Putin, to basically appoint his own successor has failed. But he can still strongly influence Ukraine's political future -- he has no choice at this point. Yanukovych might get lost in the shuffle during Kuchma's creative rearrangement of Ukraine's governing institutions. Yushchenko still may get the presidency, but it won't be worth much. If this were to happen, then nothing really would have changed in Ukraine.
The display of people's power on the wintry streets of Kiev is impressive, but Ukraine's political deadlock is set to be resolved in a place that is warm, far from public scrutiny, full of cigarette smoke, and without the best efforts of outside mediators.
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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