In 2 Parts. -= Part 1=- _______________________________________ Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com content at pinr.com ------------------------------
October 04, 2004:
For other PINR analyses on the Russia-Chechnya issue, visit the following articles:
"Russia's Foray into Preemptive Warfare a New Challenge to its Security Establishment" http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=210
"Chechnya: Russia's Second Afghanistan" http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=206
''Russia and its Muslim Population: A Balancing Act'' http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=207
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''The Chechnya Factor in Russia-E.U. Relations'' Drafted by Yevgeny Bendersky on October 04, 2004 http://www.pinr.com
The recent terror attacks in the Russian Federation have transformed the country's security environment and people's sense of vulnerability in profound ways. While the attention of the world has focused on the Russian federal investigations and the security repercussions, the country has once again been reminded of the deep differences that exist between itself and the Western world on the way the Chechen conflict is viewed and analyzed. Most importantly, Moscow has been reminded that the European Union and Russian Federation are approaching the issue of recent developments in Chechnya from entirely different points of view. There are indicators that the attack at Beslan was a symbolic watershed in the relations between the rising power of the European Union and an embattled Russian Federation.
The relationship between the E.U. and the Russian Federation regularly occupies headlines in the Russian media. Politicians in the Russian Parliament debate the extent of the relationship with the E.U., and many ministers talk of either "joining Europe" or establishing their own sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union, thereby driving towards the still-distant goal of multipolarity. Economically, it makes sense for Moscow and Europe to cooperate, since Russia is the source of cheap fuel and natural resources. The E.U. is a major source of investment and one of Russia's main trading partners. Both entities could join forces in a quasi-alliance to balance U.S. influence, though their attempt to stave off the U.S. invasion of Iraq was unsuccessful. Still, similar political cooperation will be attempted in the future, as the E.U. and Russia share concern over U.S. global influence in economic, political and military affairs.
- Russia-E.U. Relations
Yet the issue of Chechnya has always been the thorn in the side of the seemingly close cooperation between Russia and Europe. The main sticking point is the E.U.'s insistence on a political resolution to the conflict, while Russia regards its military actions in the restive region as the only way to put conflict, and terrorist activities it generates, to rest. In the very beginning of the second Chechen war, in October 1999, both sides engaged in heated arguments in Helsinki, as the E.U. urged Russia to avoid disproportionate use of force and to negotiate with Chechen political leaders. Back then, the E.U. voiced public concern about the deteriorating security situation in Chechnya, especially the lack of safety for Chechen civilians caught between the Russian federal troops and Chechen fighters. Putin wanted closer ties to the European Union on Russia's terms -- with no interference over how Moscow conducts its affairs in Chechnya.
In the five years since that meeting, the issue of Chechnya still generates major ripples of discontent between otherwise close partners. The E.U., championing human rights issues, simply cannot let Russia continue what it regards as human rights violations on a consistent basis in Chechnya. The E.U. cannot turn away from the issue of Chechnya, even if it feels that its efforts are producing no effect on Moscow. The E.U.'s recent expansion into the former Soviet European satellites has been preceded by the drive to transform the human rights records of these countries closer to the European standard.
While the aftermath of that drive is still unfolding in many of the new member states, Europe is putting additional pressure on Turkey -- long desiring to join the E.U. -- to improve the situation with its Kurdish minority in the aftermath of a low-scale civil war that cost thousands of lives.
To Brussels, political solutions to conflicts are more preferable to military ones. Currently, the E.U. is an economic powerhouse first and military entity second. In fact, it is still trying to develop its own U.S.-style military rapid reaction force in order to retain a degree of independence from Washington in the future resolution of military conflicts. It is presently unwilling to respond to conflicts in military terms, and does so in limited capacity as part of the United Nations. The E.U. maintains strong economic ties to numerous states around the world, and can exert its influence most successfully in economic terms. The history of massive military conflict on the European continent and the horrendous loss of life in two world wars made Europe more averse to military-style solutions to disputes.
On the other hand, Moscow does not see its war in Chechnya as something that can yet be adequately handled by political means. There are no indicators that its military solution is working either, but Moscow sees Chechnya in a profoundly different light than Brussels. It is a war to stave off a breakaway province in the restive Caucasus region that is always ready to implode in a series of breakaway, secessionists and ethnic wars. Moscow also sees it as a region that breeds terrorist attackers who now carry their strikes against Russia with impunity not dreamt of ten years ago.
To Moscow and Putin, the Chechens they are fighting are terrorists who now enjoy connections to al-Qaeda and perhaps other terrorist entities. Moscow argues that it is a just war to bring order to a province that has become a "criminal terrorist state" in the three years of de facto independence from 1996 to 1999, when Russian forces withdrew from Chechnya following a negotiated political agreement.
Many in Russia saw this agreement as humiliating and clearly undesirable. At present, Putin cannot risk another such agreement with the Chechen forces that he clearly cannot defeat. It would again be tantamount to the surrender of Russian forces to an enemy that now unleashes terrorist attacks against civilian men, women and children. The solution, then, is to intensify its involvement in Chechnya, while at the same time avoiding external criticism in how to handle the affairs there.
[ Continued in Pt. 2]
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