----- Original Message -----
From: "Wojtek Sokolowski" <sokol at jhu.edu>
>Isn't it that the opinion polls depend ultimately on the lists of already
>registered voters and do not include newly registered voters? Normally,
it
>does not matter that much, but this year there are many reports of voter
>registration offices being overwhelmed by new applications.
Absolutely. That's just an additional reason things look good. My point was that even if the polls are accurate-- and they have been accurate traditionally in predicting the INCUMBENT's vote total -- they underestimate the challengers' ultimate vote percentage on a consistent basis.
Nathan Newman