[lbo-talk] new Iraq poll

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Oct 5 06:59:07 PDT 2004


Survey: Iraqis losing election confidence

Majority still expect to vote, but percent drops sharply Updated: 8:50 a.m. ET Oct. 4, 2004

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraqis are less confident they will vote in elections scheduled for January than they were three months ago, an opinion poll released on Monday showed.

A survey by the Iraq Center For Research and Strategic Studies indicated that 67 percent of 3,500 respondents polled across the country were "very likely" to vote in the elections for a national assembly compared to 89 percent in June.

Nevertheless, a total of nearly 92 percent still indicated willingness to vote for the assembly that will choose a new transitional government and write a permanent constitution.

A raging insurgency that rattles Iraq everyday with bombings that have killed hundreds of civilians and security personnel has raised doubts over the feasibility of holding elections throughout the country.

The interim government, which is struggling to end the violence, says its U.S.-trained forces and police will impose security ahead of the elections.

The survey, conducted in September, showed overall enthusiasm for the elections was tainted by security fears and other concerns about the political process.

Other results:

* 59 percent of Iraqis polled said they feared intimidation by armed groups could restrict access to polling stations. * Nearly 70 percent complained of a lack of suitable political parties that could win their vote. * More than 55 percent said people in their city did not support the authority of the Iraqi police. * A similar proportion had little faith that the Iraqi army could maintain security during the elections.

Many Iraqis had hoped the U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003 would usher in a new era of democracy after decades of brutal dictatorship, but many have yet to be convinced they can now influence their daily lives.

Gauging sentiment on empowerment and Iraq's political process, the poll showed that nearly 59 percent of respondents said they had little or no control in making decisions that affect their everyday activities in their community.



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