[lbo-talk] more polls - ignore if phobic

[Matthew Snyder]

Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> quoted:
> Heading into the candidates' final face-off, 48 percent of likely
> voters support George W. Bush, 48 percent John Kerry and one percent
> Ralph Nader. The race has been close since tracking began after the
> first presidential debate Sept. 30 - but hasn't been dead even since
> before the Republican convention.

Bush is still leading in the Electoral College count, despite the dead
heat in the popular vote.  Sam Wang has a good "meta-analysis" site:

   http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html 

His latest numbers (see his site for an explanation of the terms):

  - Median expected outcome:   Kerry 257 EV, Bush 281 EV

  - 95% confidence band: Kerry 225-297 EV (Kerry >=270EV: 27%, not
statistically significant)

  - Popular Meta-Margin: Bush leads Kerry by 0.7%

How important is Ohio?  "Given today's numbers, assuming a Kerry win
in Ohio, the probability that Kerry wins the general election is 89%
(8:1 odds). Conversely, if Bush wins Ohio, his win probability for the
general election is 83% (5:1 odds)."

-- 
Matthew Snyder
Philadelphia, PA