[lbo-talk] Oil prices rise yet again in US

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Oct 14 10:13:02 PDT 2004


Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:


>More good news: $54.60 /barrel
>
>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3744094.stm
>
>It is not too farfetched to think that it will be $3/gallon at the pump
>after the election.

A bit farfetched. A linear regression of retail gas prices on crude oil prices (WTI) since 1985 suggests that we'd need $75 or $80 oil to produce a $3 pump price. The "fair" price right now is around $2.15; if $55 holds, it'd be $2.30. Every $5 increase in crude prices means a $0.16 increase in gas.

The formula is

gas/gal = .03211*oil/barrel + .54236 (r2=.74).

Doug



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list