Polls Put Bush on the Edge * The president leads most surveys, but hovering at 50% leaves him little room for error. By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer
While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote and his job approval in the final surveys before election day.
Analysts watch the incumbent's numbers in the polls so closely because most voters who stay undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.
"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50% going into the election, he usually loses," said Alan I. Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist...."
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Even some senior Republican strategists privately agreed that the experience of the last half-century supported that argument. In the history of polling dating back to 1952, no incumbent president has run even 1 full percentage point better on election day than he did in the final Gallup Poll before the vote.
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The final factor is the inevitable imperfection of polling. "At 45% or 46% and tied or down two, that is a long road for Bush - where I've had lots of unhappy outcomes in my career," said one leading Republican. "At 48-48, I've seen incumbents win by 15,000 votes. There is a big difference [for Bush] between 48 and 46. The problem is polling isn't that good.
History isn't always predictive, but races involving White House incumbents have produced a clear pattern over the last 50 years.
Since Gallup began systematic polling in 1952, eight incumbents have sought reelection. Bill Clinton in 1996, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Gerald Ford in 1976, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 all attracted a smaller share of the vote on election day than they did in the final Gallup survey. Richard M. Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 finished almost exactly at their final polling numbers.
George H.W. Bush in 1992 ran seven-tenths of a percentage point ahead of his final poll number, the biggest increase for any incumbent since 1952. The one exception to this pattern was in 1948, when Gallup polled less often, and the final survey, begun in mid-October, missed Harry S. Truman's late surge; Truman exceeded his final poll number by a full 5 percentage points.
Conversely, challengers - like Reagan in 1980, Carter in 1976, Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Adlai Stevenson in 1956 - have frequently polled higher on election day than in the final survey.
Experts like Abramowitz said those results indicated that whether Bush was running slightly ahead, slightly behind or even, he couldn't breathe easy as long as his own support in the polls stood below 50%. "The key thing to watch is whether Bush can get himself to the 50% mark or at least very close to it," Abramowitz said. "That is more important than who is ahead. Even if Bush is ahead by a point or two, if he is at 47 or 48%, I think he's in real danger.""
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"Because the remaining undecided voters tend to be white and more socially conservative, Dowd maintained they were likely to break in the same proportion as the overall electorate - providing neither side with an advantage. That would allow other factors - like the parties' competing get-out-the-vote efforts - to decide the result.
"If you look at who the undecided are, they are roughly split on favorable/unfavorable for Bush and Kerry," Dowd said. "Looking at them, there are no liberals, no minorities. They are moderates or conservatives; they go to church frequently, more frequently than the general electorate. These people at worst are split voters."
But independent pollster John Zogby was dubious that Bush would be able to split those who remained undecided to the end. In Zogby's Sunday poll, two-thirds of undecided voters said they were dissatisfied with Bush's job performance.
"Bush is not going to get them under any circumstances," he predicted. The key uncertainty, Zogby said, was whether "Kerry can persuade them to come out to vote.""
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