Analysis: Lukashenko's empty victory By Peter Lavelle Published on October 18, 2004 This article was written for UPI - United Press International
MOSCOW, Oct. 18 (UPI) -- On Sunday, Belarussians went to the polls to approve a constitutional change allowing President Alexander Lukashenko to stand for a third term in office. Belarus' Central Election Commission claims more than 77 percent of voters backed Lukashenko's proposal. Belarus' small political opposition and foreign observers claim vote rigging. However, the outcome was never in doubt - Lukashenko will rule Belarus indefinitely, or until the Kremlin says otherwise.
Belarus, with a population of 10 million, is an orphan of the Soviet past. In all but ideology, Belarus today is a snapshot taken from history. Its economy is centrally planned; the state is the overwhelming employer, social services are heavily subsidized, and even its KGB carries the same name. Disdainful and suspicious of the West, Belarus has chosen political and economic integration with Russia. Belarus is indeed a flash from the past, but its antiquated economic model that appears to be working and a popular arrangement among the majority of Belarussians.
Maintaining the Soviet model was deemed less destructive in terms of human and physical capital than pushing ahead with market and political reforms, as well as integration with the rest of Europe. Lukashenko, often called the "last dictator in Europe," is fond of reciting Belarus' impressive macroeconomic results over the past five years: GDP has increased on an average of 5 percent each year, inflation is now under control after hovering at 100 percent per, pensions are paid on time, social equality in terms of income differentiates, some key local industries have been restructured under state control, and trade with Russia is on the increase.
What Lukashenko does not like to hear is Western criticism of his rule. International rights groups have repeatedly criticized state inspired assaults against civil society, the lack of a free media, harassment of opposition groups, and the climate of fear and intimation with anything that has to do with politics. Parliament is a rubber stamp, and presidential decrees have the force of law. Some political opponents of Lukashenko's rule have "disappeared," and others have been forced into exile.
Lukashenko took great pride after Belarus' Central Election Commission announced the referendum had officially been declared valid and passed. Replying to questions concerning vote rigging and fraud, Lukashenko advised his critics to "try to calm down and stop accusing us of violations and cheating. Look at your own problems and solve them."
Was the referendum rigged and fraudulent? This may never been known. Irrespective of voting irregularities, it is clear that Lukashenko's economic policies are popular among most Belarussians. Belarussians, after all, are acutely aware of the enormous social and economic dislocation Russia underwent during the 1990s when market reforms were introduced. Lukashenko's genuine popularity is in part based on the decision not to pursue the Russian course of economic development. Belarus has taken a path different from Russia, but its fate is nonetheless very much tied to Russia's.
Lukashenko continues to defy the West and rule Belarus as a personal fiefdom, but he must still reckon with Vladimir Putin's Russia. With the planned Russia-Belarus Union (initially agreed to by Lukashenko and former Russian president Boris Yeltsin) still in play, Lukashenko does not have a strong hand to play. For all the good macroeconomic news Lukashenko likes to flaunt, he is painfully aware that Russia's good graces are the foundation of the Belarussian economic "miracle."
Russia has a grip on Belarus' economy and the grip is getting tighter. Russia accepts 62 percent of Belarus' exports and supplies 65 percent of its imports. Belarus is also completely dependent on cheap Russian oil and natural gas deliveries. The economic reality that ties Belarus to Russia is also a political vice around Lukashenko's neck.
Lukashenko and Yeltsin got on famously. The same cannot be said about Lukashenko and Putin. Lukashenko wants the Russia-Belarus Union to be based on equality and mutual benefit. Putin continues to support the Union, but only on his terms - terms that benefit Russia first and foremost.
While some commentators and analysts have suggested that Lukashenko's style of rule and political stratagems to stay in power are precursors for what Putin has in mind for Russia, it is overlooked that the Kremlin has helped Lukashenko paint himself into a corner. Lukashenko is more isolated in the world than ever before, with his only "friend" sitting in the Kremlin.
Lukashenko has won an empty victory. He has won the chance to run for the Belarussian presidency for a third time in 2006. However, having the chance to run does not necessary mean he will run or win if he does. Lukashenko's referendum was designed to confirm Belarus' present economic course and codify his personal popularity. The reality of the passed referendum has given the Kremlin the sole right to determine Belarus' destiny. Belarus is far more important to the Kremlin than the last dictator in Europe.
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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