[lbo-talk] more polling stuff

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Oct 19 11:29:48 PDT 2004


Miles Jackson wrote:


>Let's be fair: we need to compare polls closer to election day to
>the actual outcome to assess the accuracy of the polls. Cue Doug?

Most had Bush ahead, by an average of 2 points. Ralph's final numbers were almost twice as high as they actual vote.

Bush Gore Nader Buchan Bush-Gore CBS ^ 11/6 44 45 4 1 -1 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP #@ 11/6 48 46 4 1 2 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/6 47 45 4 1 2 IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # @ 11/6 48 46 4 2 REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # @ 11/6 46 48 5 1 -2 VOTER.COM ^ # @ 11/6 50 45 4 5 VOTER.COM ^ # 11/6 46 41 4 0 5 ABC # * 11/5 48 45 3 1 3 HARRIS ^ @ 11/5 47 47 5 0 HOTLINE ^ 11/5 45 42 4 1 3 ICR ^ 11/5 46 44 7 2 2 NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL 11/5 47 44 3 2 3 PEW @ 11/5 49 47 4 2 PEW 11/5 45 43 4 2 WASHINGTON POST * 11/5 48 45 3 1 3 FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ 11/2 43 43 3 1 0 MARIST COLLEGE 11/2 49 44 2 1 5 NEWSWEEK 11/2 45 43 5 2

average 47 45 4 2

actual 48 48 2 0 0

Surveys of likely voters. Questions include running mates, except where noted.

Date shown is last day of interviewing.

Respondents who lean to a candidate are included, where available.

IBD/CSM/TIPP = Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. @ Vote projection, with undecideds allocated.

^ Excludes running mates.

# Tracking poll. * ABC News and The Washington Post shared data collection then independently applied their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates.

http://pollingreport.com/2000.htm#LATEST



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