Chris Bowers' Sez:
Hawaii? by Chris Bowers
So, now that we are no longer worried about New Jersey, now that Kerry looks to be in a strong position in Iowa, Ohio and Florida, many of us out there obviously need something new to panic about. So, we are informed by some that "KE04 has been on a demonstrated decline," although I am not sure exactly who has demonstrated this.
At the same time, we are told of two new polls that show Hawaii in jeopardy. The first poll, well, no one is really worried about it on its own. It shows Bush and Kerry tied at 43, with holding holding a slender 0.7 point lead. However, everyone knows an incumbent at 43 is dead as a doornail.
As for the second poll, it was only of Oahu, which is the most Republican area of Hawaii:
Oahu Gore 139,618 (54.2%) Bush 101,310 (39.3%) Other 16,867 (6.5%) Total: 257,796 total, 69.5% of all votes Poll: Bush 46, Kerry 45
Here are the areas the poll did not include:
Kauai Gore 13,470 (60.7%) Bush 6,583 (29.6%) Other 2,152 (9.7%)
Maui Gore 23,484 (59.2%) Bush 12,876 (32.5%) Other 3,305 (8.3%)
Hawaii Gore 28,670 (55.8%) Bush 17,050 (33.2%) Other 5,648
Total Non-Oahu Gore 65,624 (58.0%) Bush 36,509 (32.2%) Other 11,105 (9.8%) Total: 113,238 votes, 30.5% of all votes) Partisan Index Compared to Oahu: DNC +10.9
So, in a poll of only 70% of the state, Bush is at 46% and the other 30% of the state is 11 points more pro-Dem according to the partisan index. This would imply that Kerry is up by 2-3 points statewide, and Bush is under 45. An incumbent President cannot win a state when he is under 45 at this level of third-party challenge. Hawaii will stay blue.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/24/19828/425
"We live under the Confederacy. We're a podunk bunch of swaggering pious hicks."
--Bruce Sterling