[lbo-talk] polling experiment

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Oct 28 07:14:15 PDT 2004

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A Republican pollster has done a poll of 12 "battleground" states. When they weight the results conventionally, Bush leads by 0.2%. When they weight the sample to match "minority" turnout in 2000, it shows Kerry 3.5% ahead. When they weight by the Census figures, Kerry's 5.2% ahead.

Results at <http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-10-27-Battleground-Ballot.pdf>.

Doug

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