--- uvj at vsnl.com wrote:
> The Hindu
>
> Monday, Nov 01, 2004
>
> Russia-West proxy war in Ukraine poll
>
> By Vladimir Radyuhin
>
> MOSCOW, OCT. 31. Ukraine voted in presidential
> elections on Sunday seen as a
> proxy battle between Russia and the West for the
> second biggest former
> Soviet state.
It's seen that way by people who aren't very bright. I thought Peter was good here (my second plug for him in a week, jeez):
Analysis: Ukraine's own path By Peter Lavelle Published on October 27, 2004 This article was written for UPI - United Press International
MOSCOW, Oct. 27 (UPI) -- Ukraine's Oct. 31 presidential election has been billed as a decisive benchmark determining the country's future. Most commentary on the election claims Ukrainians have a clear-cut choice of either joining the West, particularly Europe, or to return to the Russian fold. Irrespective of whether Viktor Yushchenko or Viktor Yanukovych is elected, Ukraine's geopolitical and economic future will be of its own making.
In a campaign fraught with dirty tricks, an alleged poisoning of a candidate, one-sided media coverage, and foreign money and influence in no shortage, Ukrainians are to elect new president. With more than 20 candidates running, only two have a chance to succeed outgoing President Leonid Kuchma. Viktor Yanukovych, Kuchma's handpicked successor and running on a pro-Russia platform, is in a dead heat with former prime minister, successful policy reformer, and central bank governor Viktor Yushchenko - who is widely seen as the candidate of "change" looking to move Ukraine away from Russia and toward Europe.
Ukraine's election comes on the heels of political changes in Russia and Belarus. After almost five years in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin has consolidated control over the media, has a pliant parliament, reigned in regional governments, and expanded the Kremlin's very visible hand in key sectors of the economy. In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko has essentially delivered Belarus' fate to the Kremlin by having himself appointed president for life..
Ukraine differs from Russia and Belarus in many ways. Ukraine's political parties are lively and have developed distinct political platforms with the executive branch and parliament coexisting in an environment that has meaningful checks and balance on both. While this is considered a forward-looking democratic virtue, it is in fact a reflection of country's chronic fragmentation - divided by politics, geopolitical lines (with eastern regions more pro-Russian and western Ukraine being more pro-Western).
In Russia, political parties are weak and, for the most part, dependent on the Kremlin. Belarus' political scene is completely dominated by one man - Lukashenko.
Ukraine's economy also differs from Russia and Belarus. Putin has forcefully undercut the economic and political power of Russia's oligarchs. In Belarus, Lukashenko is the only oligarch of significance. Ukraine's economy remains tightly controlled by oligarchs. In many ways Ukraine's presidential contest is about how the economy should develop.
Opposition candidate Yushchenko claims Ukraine should not follow the political path of its former Soviet neighbors. He supports Ukraine's eventual membership in the European Union and NATO, playing down the demands of Ukraine's very large ethnic Russian minority and breaking the influence of the country's oligarchs.
Yanukovych, the "status quo" candidate, supports greater economic integration with Russia and the Kremlin's designs to consolidate an economic bloc that includes other former Soviet republics. Vladimir Putin's current visit to Ukraine, officially having nothing to do with election, is interpreted by all as a strong show of support of Kuchma's protégé and his agenda.
Yanukovych also supports making Russian the Ukraine's second official language and, if elected, ensure that Ukrainians and Russians can freely cross common borders without visas. He also represents the interests of the Donetsk oligarch grouping - one of four clans controlling vast swaths of the economy. (Kuchma's chief of staff, Viktor Medvedchuk represents the Kiev clan, and Kuchma's son-in-law Viktor Pinchuk heads the Dnipropetrovsk group).
However, as different as Yushchenko and Yanukovych are, the outcome of this election most likely will not bring about any immediate or dramatic changes in the short run. The differing political rhetoric and conflicting visions for Ukraine's future need to be understood in the context of hard realities on the ground.
If Yushchenko is elected, he is unlikely to move fast against Ukraine's oligarchs. Putin assembled a powerful team of supporters among the security forces and empowered state bureaucrats before he started his assault on Russia's oligarchs. Ukraine's oligarchs are extremely well entrenched, with a reach into state structures and politics their Russia peers never achieved. Yushchenko elected as an outsider, will surely have to tread carefully. Western institutions and governments will most likely be very supportive of a Yushchenko presidency. But without significantly freeing the economy of oligarchic control, that support will not be much more than goodwill.
Yushchenko is also unlikely to adopt an overt anti-Russia stance along the lines of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. Inflamed Russian-Ukrainian relations are not in the interests of anyone. For all the Western support Yushchenko has received in this race, few in Europe or the United States want to contemplate the consequences of a significant Kiev-Moscow falling out.
Yanukovych's election should not be seen as the tragedy so widely predicted by Western media and certainly not Ukraine's abject surrender to the Kremlin. The most important change that will occur in Ukraine is the retirement of Leonid Kuchma. His formal departure from Ukrainian politics will be a catalyst to shake up the country's status quo. Yanukovych will have to address shifting power relations among the oligarch clans, and it should not be ruled out that he will become his own man in politics - no different from the political trajectory of Vladimir Putin.
It is also doubtful that Yanukovych aims to deliver Ukraine's fate into the hand of the Kremlin. Greater economic integration is welcomed, but complete integration unlikely. Ukraine's oligarchs certainly must be mindful of Putin's low regard for the super-rich calling all the shots in the economic and political spheres.
Whoever is elected, the next president will have to deal with Putin's Kremlin. Russia's interest in this election has been extraordinary. This should not surprise anyone. With the Russian diaspora comprising 17.3 percent of Ukraine's population, the Kremlin is compelled to be concerned with the fate of fellow nationals. Russia's Black Sea fleet anchored on the Crimean coast is an important foreign policy and military issue for the Kremlin. Inter-country trade and capital flows are important for both countries.
This election has mistakenly been characterized as Ukraine's decision to look east or to the west. This election is actually about how Ukraine desires to further develop its domestic order - politically and economically - to address both east and west. Ukraine is following its own path - a path that will not fully please the east, west and certainly many Ukrainians for a long to come.
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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