[lbo-talk] another poll...

[Doug Henwood]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/
John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both
among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a
nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot
preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they
would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader
is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for
Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for
Nader.

Among registered voters considered likely to vote in November, Bush is at
48% and Kerry is at 47% in a two-way ballot. With Nader in the race,  Bush
and Kerry are tied at 47% each among likely voters and Nader is at 3%.

The results presented here are based on 1,014 completed telephone interviews
conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. Of the
total sample of 1,014 registered voters, 800 are likely voters in November.
The interviews were completed August 30 through September 1, 2004. The
theoretical margin of error for the total sample of registered voters is
plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where
opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of
likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on
questions where opinion is evenly split.

While Kerry was leading among Independents by 10 percentage points in a
two-way match-up in August, Kerry leads by 5 percentage points among
Independents in the latest survey.