[lbo-talk] Time Poll: Huge Bounce For Bush

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Fri Sep 3 18:04:20 PDT 2004



> http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000637.php

Ruy Teixeira

September 3, 2004

How High the Bounce?

It must be stressed that at this point: we don't know. Measurements of

a candidate's bounce should be based on polls taken before and after a

convention. So far we have no such data--in fact, tonight will be the

first night where polling can be conducted that is truly after the

completeion of the GOP convention. Therefore, we won't have real

bounce data for several days.

That said, let us consider the results of polls taken during the GOP

convention. The one that seems to be freaking out some Democrats is

the just-released Time poll. (I continue to be amazed at how easily

many Democrats are panicked by the release of an unfavorable poll;

there's been a lot of talk about whether John Kerry is tough

enough--I'm more worried about whether regular old Democrats are tough

enough. Sheesh.)

The Time poll, conducted 8/31-9/2, has Bush ahead by 11, 52-41 in a

3-way LV matchup that includes Nader. (Time presumably will eventually

release the 2-way LV matchup. I'm doubtful we'll ever see RV results.)

How plausible is this result?

Well, it's certainly possible that Bush was as far ahead during the

convention as this poll suggests. But all other available polls taken

during the convention contradict this result.

In an attempt to compare apples to apples, here are Bush-Kerry results

from contemporaneous 3-way LV matchups (except Rasmussen, where only a

2-way LV result is available), with Bush's margin in parentheses:

Zogby, 8/30-9/2: 46 Bush-43 Kerry (+3)

ARG, 8/30-9/1: 47 Bush-47 Kerry (tie)

Rasmussen, 8/31-9/2: 49 Bush-45 Kerry (+4)

In this company, 52 Bush-41 Kerry (+11) certainly sticks out. Could it

have anything to do with the different dates included in these

surveys, even though they are very close? Well, the Rasmussen data are

from exactly same period as the Time data (8/31-9/2).

But if you are skeptical of the Rasmussen data, consider the Zogby

data. The Zogby data only include an additional day (8/30) when

compared to the Time data. But perhaps 8/30 was a very pro-Kerry day

since the Republican convention had just started. However, for Zogby

and Time to matchup (have Bush leading by 11) for the three days they

share, Kerry would have to be leading by about 21 points in Zogby on

the day (8/30) they do not share. I rather doubt that is the case.

The simplest hypothesis then is that the Time poll, for this period,

is exceptionally pro-Bush and therefore should be viewed with

skepticism.

In the meantime, we will await the release of data that actually

measure the convention bounce, defined, just to be clear, as the

change in a candidate's level of support (not the margin) from the

period before to the period after the convention. And while we're

waiting, here are some interesting observations that are worth keeping

in mind from a just-released Gallup analysis of the bounce issue:

Based solely on history, the Bush-Cheney ticket could expect to

gain five to six points among registered voters after this week's

convention. That would result in a 52% to 53% support level for

Bush among registered voters, up from 47% in the pre-convention

poll.

However, the results from Gallup's post-Democratic convention poll

showed that history might not apply in 2004, a year in which the

electorate was activated long before the conventions (usually the

conventions serve to activate voters), and a year in which

relatively small proportions of undecided and swing voters are

available to the two presidential tickets. Also, the

post-Democratic convention poll suggested that the Democratic

convention might have helped energize Republican voters. It is

unclear whether the Republican convention could have a similar

paradoxical effect on Democrats, or if Republicans will be

activated, as is typically the case.

So, stay tuned. And don't forget that even when we see the real bounce

data, the pattern after the Democratic convention was for Kerry's

increase in support to dissipate quickly. We shall see if the same

thing happens to Bush, whatever his bounce level.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 07:15 PM | link | Comments (0)



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