i'm hardly knowledgeable regarding national economic matters. i would agree it's doubtful the US economic will "collapse" in a year or two.
however, there are a lot of "ifs" in both doug's and michael's postings. If we can do something about the boy president lowering taxes on the rich and super rich; if we manage to escape the DP being the only show in town; if we "propose ways to solve this," assuming any proposals will be acted upon.
we have a huge deficit, growing daily by leaps and bounds. the interest on the national debt is about $25,000 for each US citizen. http://www.uwsa.com/uwsa-usdebt.html
interest on this debt grows a few million or billion dollars every hour. according to a recent article, 50 percent of the national debt is owned by foreigners. next to none of this borrowed money is going for things americans need, like infrastructure, health care, education, housing, etc. the interest is taking money away from things the people need.
MNCs and the super rich are based offshore to avoid paying taxes. more and more people are sinking below a poverty line that is dated in the first place; more people have no health insurance. the minimum wage is dated and below the poverty line.
the unemployment rate is completely untrustworthy because it doesn't measure how many are unemployed. "new" jobs pay less, provide fewer, if any benefits, than "old" jobs. the US is largely a service economy dependent on people with the money to afford services. kids graduating from university are having harder times finding work. the university of california system is turning away qualified applicants due to budget cuts.
we're in at least a "low-intensity" depression. we have a multi-trillion dollar economy which doesn't seem to be trickling down. who controls and gets the profits from this money? who benefits from the 85 percent capacity utilization? how strong is an economy that's running on a 50 percent activity rate being dumped into "pure waste"? how will the steadily increasing rate of average household debt eventually effect the overall economy.
joanna points out how expensive it is to own a home where she lives, what a monthly payment on what is likely an "average" home is; what it means if the payors get sick, disabled, loose their "new" lower paying jobs, etc. this is not unique.
these day to day issues may appear uncomplicated to people who look at, and believe in, statistics and the "big" picture. but they are the kiss of death for the majority of americans.
R
At 05:00 PM 9/12/2004, you wrote:
>I totally agree with Doug. This is a $12 trillion dollar economy, with an
>85 percent capacity utilization rate (vs. a 144 rate in 1943), and 50
>percent of "economic" activity being dumped into pure waste, such as SUVs.
>The margin for absorbing crises is huge, and people who want an easy answer
>through some collapse story are wasting our time. We will continue with our
>low-intensity depression, unless and until people like us propose ways to
>solve this, and manage to escape the DP being the only option in town.
>
>Memento Mori.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: lbo-talk-bounces at lbo-talk.org [mailto:lbo-talk-bounces at lbo-talk.org]
>On Behalf Of Doug Henwood
>Sent: Sunday, September 12, 2004 2:25 PM
>To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
>Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] Fiscalopolypse ?
>
>ira glazer quoted:
>
> >Yet whoever wins the 2004 race will become the first U.S. president
> >to confront what sober-minded experts across the political spectrum
> >describe as an impending "fiscal catastrophe" lying right around the
> >corner.
>
>Not really. The 'crisis' isn't really a crisis, and even according to
>those who say it is, it's decades away. The austerity party is
>mobilizing again.
>
>The short-term problem is that the boy president cut taxes on rich
>people, and the economy kinda stinks. It's not much more complicated
>than that.
>
>Doug
>___________________________________
>http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk
>
>___________________________________
>http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk