Strong Interest in Debates
Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush's edge over his Democratic rival has eroded. Reflecting this new volatility in the race, the size of the swing vote has increased slightly since the summer, rather than contracting as it typically does as the election approaches.
The latest national survey of 1,972 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted in two waves over a seven-day period Sept. 8-14, finds that the president's 52%-40% advantage in the initial period dissipated in the polling conducted Sept. 11-14. The second wave of interviewing shows the race even among registered voters, at 46%-46%. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% in the second wave, down from the huge 54%-39% advantage he held in the first wave of interviews.
The shifting voter sentiment observed in this poll reflects a number of cross currents in public opinion. Hard-hitting attacks against the Democratic challenger throughout August and during the Republican convention took a heavy toll on Kerry's personal image. But as more time has passed since the Republican convention, Kerry's unfavorable ratings have receded somewhat.
Despite Kerry's rebound, his slippage in the post-convention polls has undermined confidence in his chances of victory -- including among Democrats. The percentage of Democrats predicting a Kerry victory has fallen from 66% in August to 43% this month.
Bush improved his personal image in early September and erased or reduced his rival's advantage on most issues. At the same time, however, Bush showed continued vulnerability on Iraq and the economy. A plurality of the public still disapproves of the president's stewardship of the economy. While opinion of his handling of Iraq has inched up since the early summer, nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) say it is not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is reelected.
The tightening race underscores the stakes for both candidates in the upcoming presidential debates. The public remains highly engaged by the campaign -- 71% say they have given a lot of thought to the election - and this is carrying over into increased interest in the debates. Fully 61% of voters say it is very likely they will watch the debates, up considerably from this point in the last two elections.
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