>[this makes no sense - the Pew and Gallup polls were taken at almost the
>same time, yet the first has the race dead even, and the second has W 13
>points ahead]
>
>Poll Finds Bush Lead Surging Among Likely Voters
>
>Fri Sep 17, 2:04 AM ET
>
>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) has surged to a
>13-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites)
>among likely voters, according to a new USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll released
>on Friday.
>The newspaper said Bush's 55 percent to 42 percent for the Massachusetts
>senator in the poll conducted Sept. 13-15 was the first statistically
>significant edge either candidate has held this year.
What is up with these wildly divergent polls lately? Pollsters unconsciously trying to help Bush appear more like a leader? Perhaps newspaper editors or higher up want to give this impression? My memory is not the best but I don't recall a small number of high profile polls giving wildly divergent results in past elections. Is there some new statistical modeling being used that may explain these? I hate to sound paranoid and conspiratorial but it does seem odd that a few polls pick Shrub as the leader when most others keep showing basically an even race.
John Thornton