Sep 21, 2004
India's Congress waves red flag at left By Ramtanu Maitra
NEW DELHI - Trouble is brewing between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and the left, its most important backer. Relations between the two, which have been tenuous at the best of times, seem to be getting even worse.
There was some consternation in the left camp when the new deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, handpicked by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, announced in early September that he had decided to go in for an "open process of consultations". In plain English, the government wanted the opinion of foreign entities on the progress of plan schemes and the effectiveness of the country's economic policy.
What surprised some observers was that while Ahluwalia stuck out his neck for foreigners' participation in the planning process, he continued to stonewall the participation of Indian non-government organizations (NGOs). Many NGOs complained that instead of expanding the planning process to include grassroots participants, the Planning Commission was opening doors to foreign companies and the World Bank.
In line with Ahluwalia's announcement, the Planning Commission has set up 19 consultative groups to take a second look at the 10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007) prepared by the previous National Democratic Alliance government. The World Bank is represented in the committee on water resources and transport, the Asian Development Bank in the committee on agriculture and financial resources and the US-headquartered consultancy firm, McKinsey, in the power and energy, technical education, health, family welfare and agriculture committees. This is a first. Never before have foreign observers pored over India's plan programs.
In 2001, McKinsey sent a delegation to New Delhi to make a two-hour presentation to the then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, proposing that it be included in the planning process. Ahluwalia, according to a report in the Asian Age newspaper, contributed significantly to the initiative. But Vajpayee threw out the proposal. The so-called McKinsey blueprint, which contains 13 points of advice to get India's economy on the right path, has now become the proverbial red rag waved before the raging bull of the Indian left.
Limits of the left The left parties, with about 60 parliamentary seats, have undisputed control over the lifespan of the UPA government, as the Congress does not have sufficient seats to rule on its own. They threw their support behind arch-rival Congress as they felt the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)was the "greater evil". But beyond that, the left almost believed the UPA would promote an economic program in keeping with its own. How it reached that inference is slightly puzzling though as both Montek Singh Ahluwalia and Manmohan Singh are strong believers in globalization and economic reforms a la the Washington Consensus. Prior to his appointment as deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, Ahluwalia served as the first director of the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)in New York.
The left parties have indicated they won't defend the government on the issue of bringing foreign consultants into the planning process when the subject is discussed in parliament. The left's action is not surprising. They didn't approve of Ahluwalia's appointment as deputy chairman of the Planning Commission in the first place, as Communist Party of India national secretary D Raja told newsmen after the appointment: "We are not very happy with it ... We know a government's policies are not decided by a single man. So we are not making a big issue of it, though we do not favor his appointment."
Congress 'design' The left parties have consistently held that most of India's economic reforms that began in 1991, with Manmohan Singh as the finance minister, were dictated by the IMF and the World Bank. They argue that under the World Bank-IMF model, the priorities for India's economic growth are determined not in the interests of the Indian people but for a narrow affluent section at home and foreign capitalism. While the left litany is no secret, many observers are surprised that the Congress - well aware of the left's ideological moorings and its policy rigidities - would pick a fight with its most important ally barely a few months after coming to power.
Some observers even go so far as to say this is actually a Congress design to bring down its own government. According to this school of thought, the Congress and its allies, with 217 seats in parliament and dependent on the left for support of around 60, are willing to sink the government quickly before the BJP has a chance to settle its internal feuds and regroup itself.
The UPA, say these analysts, would like to go out of business within 12-18 months and seek fresh polls, asking people to give it the numbers so that it doesn't have to depend on entities like the left. With the BJP still licking its wounds and the second line of leadership yet to emerge fully, the UPA could even actually pull it off, according to this calculation.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.)
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