>Well yes, but peak oil theorists don't argue that we're going to run
>dry but rather, as I'm sure every schoolchild who subscribes to
>"Petroleum Economist" knows (and listen, kids do love that mag -
>almost as much as watching Spongebob), that the growing demand will
>outstrip the planet's practically reachable supply.
Yeah, but that's not likely any time soon. If prices rise significantly, energy efficiency will become fashionable again, and it will become economical to refine the black sands of Alberta. Even at $46, oil isn't all that expensive by historical standards.
I'm willing to do a Simon-Eherlich style bet on it - I bet that at no time in the next 10 years will oil trade over 5.25 times the average U.S. hourly wage (which is where it was at its 1980 peak). That would be around $82 today (basis WTI cash prices).
Doug