[lbo-talk] Measuring Enthusiasm of the Party Base (or Lack Thereof)

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

>[lbo-talk] Ruy Teixeira on why most of the polls are crap
>Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
>Thu Sep 23 04:23:26 PDT 2004
<snip>
>Public Opinion Watch - Sept. 22, 2004
>Ruy Teixeira
>Decoding the Gallup and New York Times Polls
<snip>
>Here's why. Gallup decides who likely voters are based on seven 
>questions about their interest in voting, attention to the campaign, 
>and knowledge  about how to vote (e.g., where their polling place is 
>located). The interested/attentive/knowledgeable voters are 
>designated "likely" and the rest are thrown out of the sample. But 
>as a campaign progresses, the level  of interest among voters tends 
>to change, particularly among those with partisan inclinations whose 
>interest level will rise when their party  seems to be mobilized and 
>doing well and fall when it is not. Because of  this, partisans of 
>the mobilized party (lately, Republicans) tend to be screened into 
>the likely voter sample and partisans of the demobilized party 
>(lately, Democrats) tend to get screened out. But tomorrow, of 
>course, the Democrats could surge, in which case their partisans may 
>be the ones over-represented in likely voter samples.
>
>That suggests the uncomfortable possibility that observed changes in 
>the sentiments of "likely voters" represent not actual changes in 
>voter sentiment, but rather changes in the composition of likely 
>voter samples as political enthusiasm waxes and wanes among the 
>different parties' supporters.

In other words, John Kerry's poor showings in recent polls are 
indicative of lack of political enthusiasm among partisans who 
constitute the base of the Democratic Party.  If even partisan 
supporters of the Democratic Party can't get enthusiastic about 
Kerry, it is unlikely that anyone else is.  Try as Ruy Teixeira might 
to find a positive spin on the polls, there is no denying that Kerry 
is a lackluster candidate.
-- 
Yoshie

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