Pew Uses Same Pollster As Newsweek - Who Oversampled For GOP Earlier This Month
I’ve already read comments from some folks today that Gallup may be right because the Pew Center poll came out this morning showing a 48%-40% Bush lead. Yet keep in mind this poll showed them tied two weeks ago, and what has happened to make these results so volatile since? I have had a lot of respect for the Pew polls because they aren’t backed by corporate interests and because of Andrew Kohut. But in looking closer at the Pew poll this morning, I noticed two things.
First, it appears that the Pew poll is not weighted for party ID either, and only weights for census/demographic factors.
Second, the Pew poll isn’t done by them. Their poll is done by Princeton Survey Research, the same folks who have done questionable polls for Newsweek just this month that had a disproportionate share of GOP respondents in their last sample.
So don’t assume the Pew poll is representative of the likely voting populace either. ...
btw, for good analyses -- deconstructions-- of the very recent gallup polls, which seem weirder and weirder by the day,
September 27, 2004 The "How Can Gallup........" Game
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000729.php
and September 28, 2004 The "How Can Gallup......." Game (Continued)
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000730.php
for a good reference on basic poll literacy,
20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results