September 30, 2004
The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose ByJohn Zogby
Tonight President George W. Bush and his Democrat opponent Senator John Kerry will engage in their first of three debates. Historically, these televised presidential debates have had a significant impact on the final outcome of several elections. In 1960, a polished and articulate Massachusetts Senator named John F. Kennedy showed that he could compete with a more experienced and older sitting Vice-President, Richard Nixon.
And in 1980, when Americans seemed to have made up their minds about not voting for President Jimmy Carter, they needed to be assured that his opponent, Republican Ronald Reagan was more than a dangerous ideologue or a Grade B actor. Reagan delivered one of the great knockout blows in presidential debate history: “Are you better off than you were fours ago?”
Tonight’s debate is especially momentous because the race is extremely close, the two sides are very polarized, and there are only a small number – perhaps only 6 million voters nationwide – who are genuinely undecided. The stakes are important for both candidates, but much more so for Mr. Kerry.
In May of this year I wrote a column arguing that Senator F. John Kerry would defeat President George W. Bush in the November election. I based my conclusion on several factors. First, that Mr. Bush was posting weak numbers for an incumbent. In fact, the last three incumbents seeking re-election with numbers like his all went down in defeat – Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and the President’s father in 1992.
Second, I noted that Mr. Kerry led the President by double digits on four of the top five issues – the economy, health care, the conduct in the war in Iraq, and education. Third, is Mr. Kerry’s own history as a good “closer”, who has famously reached for victory in the throes of defeat several times before – notably from a dismal 2003 to victories in the Democratic primaries.
I think even more today that if John Kerry loses this race it will be because he has blown an opportunity rather than from any innate strength of the present incumbent.
Since mid-August, the President has had several good weeks in tandem with a tepid performance by his opponent, but even in the glow of his post-convention bounce, Mr. Bush is still posting barometric readings that are over 50% negative. In my last column, I noted that Senator Kerry had to start giving his base something to energize them. He began to do that with his strongest statement against the conduct of the war in Iraq to date on Monday (September 20), followed by daily attacks on the war every day since. Remember, this is a candidate who gets about 45%-47% of the vote just by showing up. That is the purely anti-Bush vote. Kerry’s problem has been that up until last week he had not given his base anything to grab on to. This group does not want to hear that he “would do the same thing in Iraq all over again”. They want a genuine alternative and the Senator has been missing his target with the convoluted, nuanced statements of a professor leading a seminar and not the clear, bumper sticker, crisp messages of a successful campaign.
But the Massachusetts Senator still has aces in his hand that he can play. First, the President’s numbers are still not good. Despite a few outlier polls that show a large single digit or even a double digit lead for Mr. Bush, my poll has the President’s lead at only 3% and the average of all the public polls (as of this writing) is only a 4 point lead. Mr. Bush is only polling at 46% to 48% both nationally and in many key battleground states, hardly victory territory. And his barometric readings are still more negative than positive.
The best that can be said is that the President’s numbers are still better than Mr. Kerry’s. But my polling reveals another important fact – Mr. Kerry has more room for growth than the President. He has to first consolidate his base with an anti-war message that his base wants. He need not worry about accusations of flip-flopping on this issue because that is what the other side says about him and they are never going to vote for him under any circumstances. This alone will bring him to parity with the President in the polls.
From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new. They seem to have their minds made up about the President and have been given no reason to vote for Mr. Kerry. What is most important to this group? They agree with Mr. Bush on values, leadership, the war on terror, and likeability. They prefer Mr. Kerry on the economy, health care, the war, and education.
The debates will take on a special significance this year. The stakes are extremely high. Will Mr. Kerry be able bridge the likeability gap? Can he find his bumper sticker messages to make his point to those who want a change? Will he be able to put the President on the defensive on the war, health care, the economy, etc. without appearing to be bullying a leader that Americans seem to like? And can he make a connection with the war in Iraq spinning out of control and a squandered opportunity to pursue Osama bin Laden with full global support by alienating long-time US allies and dissipating US troop strength?
Will the President be able to force Mr. Kerry on the defensive by revealing the Senator’s changing positions? Can he do as he did successfully during the Republican National Convention by effectively linking his leadership on the war on terrorism with the ongoing war in Iraq? Can he finesse the three debates by just showing himself to be a plainspoken guy next door?
The pressure is really on Mr. Kerry to give a strong performance in both the debates and in the remaining five weeks of this campaign. If he is the John Kerry who defeated popular Governor Bill Weld in the Senate race of 2000 and the one who came from dismally low numbers in 2003 to win the primaries in 2004, he will win this race.
As of this writing this race is still John Kerry’s to lose.
Copyright by Zogby International.