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<DIV>Michael Pollak wrote:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>> My very rough sampling method came up with the same number</DIV>
<DIV>> you'd get by the usual method of doubling the official
estimate<BR>> (100,000), halving the organizers' (500,000) and striking
an<BR>> average. [225,000]</DIV>
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<DIV>Maybe this is a peculiar instance, but using a geometric
mean** yields a very similar number:</DIV>
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<DIV>(100,000*500,000)^1/2 = 223,607</DIV>
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<DIV>I appreciate that the usual method tries to account for the fact
that cops tend to underestimate, while organizers tend to overestimate.
But were there more specific reasons for working it as
described above? I mean, does it have any advantage in these situations
over using a geometric mean?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-- Shane</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>** - <A
href="http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GeometricMean.html">http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GeometricMean.html</A></DIV>
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