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<DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT size=2 PTSIZE="10"><FONT face=Verdana
size=3>Turbulo writes:</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV><FONT
face=arial,helvetica><FONT size=2 PTSIZE="10"><FONT face=Verdana size=3></FONT>
<DIV><BR>These are the choices facing the new government in Uruguay. But there
are also choices concerning how to respond to this dilemma. Vazquez--or Lula or
any leftist politician who comes to power--would have to be pretty stupid indeed
not to foresee an international capital strike in response to any serious
redistributive measures before coming to office, and just as stupid not to have
thought about a strategy for combating it, which would necessarily go beyond the
arena of elections and legislative programs.<BR><BR>Lula lacked such strategy
not because he was stupid, but because he was committed in advance to working
within the electoral/parliamentary framework. This means, in effect, that he had
already decided not to do anything to displease the US or its lending agencies.
Vazquez's social-democratic economy minister, Danilo Astori, promises more of
the same. "It's going to be just like Brazil," he says. This suggests that
Vazquez's Broad Front operates on a similar method: engage in leftist rhetoric,
in Vasquez's case promising to restore slashed social benefits, to get elected,
and then back off, counseling "realism" in the face of "limited" choices.
Post-election limitations were there before the elections. To talk about them
only afterwards indicates a lack of seriousness about overcoming them in the
first place. </DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=2>What "strategy" did you have in mind to combat a capital
strike? The only way to do so is to expropriate the bourgeoisie politically
and economically, which means civil war and foreign intervention. Or print
worthless paper money until an economic crisis and internal
foreign-supported subversion brings your new government down. How far
do you think Lula and Vasquez would get on this program? Or should they embark
on a radical redistribution of power and property without first warning their
supporters of the likely consequences? Even Chavez knows his limits, which are
more elastic than most thanks to foreign capital's interest in Venezuelan oil.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Political leadership is about thinking things through to the
end, and assessing the balance of forces, including the willingness of your
base to do whatever it takes to win, and proceeding from there. When former
revolutionaries become cautious government reformers, it's not because of a weak
character or a newly-acquired taste for the good life or because they have
illusions about the "parliamentary road", but because of their evolved
assessment that they could not prevail in a revolutionary confrontation
against their enemies, no matter how skilled their agitation or the
heroism of their followers. Many of the former guerrillas and popular movement
leaders who surround Lula and Vasquez came to that conclusion on the basis of
many trials and a long and intimate connection with the masses which North
American and West European radicals lack. The historic developments in the FSU
and China, the decline of the international labour and socialist movement, and
the growth of the capitalist world market, have also affected their
thinking. It's easy to rush to judgement from an easy
chair. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>MG</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>