Izvestia April 7, 2005 RUSSIA NEEDS INTERESTS NOT SENTIMENTS IN CIS - KOSACHEV Konstantin KOSACHEV, head of the State Duma's international committee [from RIA Novosti's digest of the Russian press]
Conclusions from the events in the post-Soviet space are the main subject in Russian foreign policy. The orientation on giving special attention to the CIS space was enforced in the old fashion. Russia was forgiving debts and making a stake on "straightforward" diplomacy. The most sophisticated channels of influence were delivering no value for money. But in CIS Russia needs interests, not sentiments.
Now special attention must be given to forming an energy bloc in the Commonwealth by clearly delineating what will be lost by countries opting not in Russia's favour: EU integration is incompatible with CIS preferences.
Russia can buck the trend by proceeding from its neighbors' vital interests, rather than "political technologies". And here it may emerge that Russia will have its interests focused on countries other than those that are involved in the current tug of war. Is it accidental that the U.S. is more active in Central Asia and the Caucasus? Washington's calm response to Ukraine entering the influence orbit of its rival EU reveals its true attitude: "Ukraine may be with anybody, but not Russia." The EU will not be let into the oil-rich Azerbaijan, however.
CIS citizens should clearly see what they are to lose and what to gain. As for Russia, it need not feel obliged to spend its resources on those who change their orientation. Those pursuing reorientation risk facing rallies of a different colour. Not of students but of economically active protesters.
More often than not Russia has to do with far from ideal regimes, for their rivals are anti-Russian forces. Hence the illusion that Russia backs unpopular clans. Neighboring peoples should be given a clear signal: the anti-Russian stake of those who consider themselves to be a democratic opposition is a strategic mistake.
The struggle for the right to look more "orange" would be really funny but for one "but": rivals are competing in who will more convincingly demonstrate to Europe their rupture with Russia. However, even this will pass. For some "revolutionaries" a term in office face to face with domestic problems and without looking over the shoulder at Russia may prove a chastening (or even fatal) experience.
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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