[lbo-talk] Housing Market

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Mon Apr 11 10:42:01 PDT 2005


Patrick Bond wrote:


>Sure we do, across the world and in the US. Simon Kuznets provided
>the empirical 15-25 year waves. Doug, you remember the REIT crisis
>of the mid-1970s and the S&L crash of the late 1980s? (Worse in some
>places than others to be sure, but hard not to notice vast real
>estate overcapacity, mortgage defaults, negative equity and 30%
>price declines in key markets.) Same processes here in South Africa.
>Read Neil Smith's Uneven Development or David Harvey's The
>Urbanization of Capital and The Urban Experience, if you need the
>marxian theory of spatio-temporal uneven development which helps
>explain the way both amortization waves and gentrification trends
>affect the Kuznets cycle.

I said national, for the US, since WW2. I'm sure you can find them in other times and other places.

I just looked at the National Association of Realtors series for existing house prices, which begins in 1967, and the OFHEO housing price index. which begins in 1975. The NAR had two brief periods of nominal yearly declines, and the OFHEO has none. I'm sure there's a Marxian theoretical processor you can put this data through and find a different history, but I don't have one on my computer.

Doug



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