If you doubt this is true try subscribing to "Oil & Gas Journal", "Petroleum Reserve", "Energy Bulletin" or "First Brake". All industry related trade publications and you can read them and decide for yourself. More than 50% of publications from oil geologists make the above claim. Pretty safe bet that they are indicative of the beliefs trade. As I said, it is not unanimous but the USGS claims the peak may come as early as 2015 but even that projection is contingent on the discovery of a few more major oil fields. They project the findings based on averages over the last century even though most oil geologists believe that such findings are highly improbable. Which oil geologists wouldn't admit a peak isn't coming and therefore crude oil is infinite and will never run out. Your question above suggests that such people exist. Please let me know who they are and why they don't write for any of the major trade publications in this field. The API grudgingly admits it is possible we will run out of oil completely by 2070. Possible but not probable. That puts the peak before 2010 even if they don't tacitly admit to it. At a recent ASPO meeting, a group that was once considered a fringe organization, BP and ExxonMobile both had representatives admitting that peak oil was possible before 2010. You can always find a scientist to disagree with another or even with the mainstream though in any field. Look no further than the recent Schiavo case for an example of that. Even if you find that 20% of oil geologists believe the peak is coming in 2037 so what? The majority disagree with that finding and are more likely to be correct. You can think what you like but the smart money is on peak oil before 2010. The dumb money is on 2037. I plan on still being here for at least long enough to see if this holds true or not but you never know, I may get hit by a bus tomorrow. I am not a catastrophism buff either. People are smart enough to cope with this and I don't see major starvation and near extinctions in the future because of oil issues. I do see that the working class and poor usually shoulder a disproportionate amount of suffering in any major disruption so there is concern for this on my part. Pretending it isn't true because I don't want to "deny" working people their SUV's is just silly however. People tend to react to what they see much more than to plan for uncertainty so I see no reason why this issue should be expected to be dealt with any differently.
John Thornton