[lbo-talk]Peak oil

jthorn65 at sbcglobal.net jthorn65 at sbcglobal.net
Thu Apr 14 19:16:02 PDT 2005



> jthorn65 at sbcglobal.net wrote, re. Athabasca oil sands deposits:
>
> > No production technology is currently applicable to oil
> > sand deposits and none are promising in development expected to be brought
> > online within the next 20 to 25 years. 77% of this oil is currently unextractable.
> >
> > If oil reaches $175 to $190 a barrel (in today's dollars) then it might be feasible
> > to begin extraction.
>
> This is incorrect in light of current technological advances and the
> reality on the ground, as I understand it. Canada's PM just signed an
> agreement of cooperation with China's leader vis-a-vis oil extraction in
> the oil sands and elsewhere (among other things) and activities by
> Canadian and multinational entities are proceeding apace, obviously
> owing to the current per-barrel prices obtainable on the open market.
> I'll dig up some info when I get home, if I can, but google would lead
> to many sources. Is it possible the cite you provide is outdated as far
> as production costs go? Perhaps some less-extreme version of Moore's Law
> would apply here...
>
> / dave /

This is for extraction of only a portion of the oil. Most is unextractable with current technology. 77% is the estimate of how much oil in this region cannot be extracted. Heavy convention extraction methods can reach about 1% and newer extraction technologies are estimated to be capable of recovering approximately 14%. This is from data published in 2004. The technologies you speak of are listed below in an extensive quote from Singh's work.

Successful Recovery Technologies

There are several reviews of bitumen and heavy oil recovery technologies The key successful technologies are as follows:

Hot Water Extraction (HWE): This process, which has been commercialized at Suncor and Syncrude, works because the bitumen, in the presence of hot caustic solution easily separates from the water-wet sand grains. The process is most suitable for bitumen-rich oilsand and the major technical challenge is to manage the stable sludge that has to be accumulated in large tailings ponds.

Cold Water Extraction (CWE): This is a less-energy-intensive process, made possible because the belt conveyors, which transport the ore from the mine face to the extraction facility, are being replaced by a slurry pipeline in which partial separation of the bitumen from the sand occurs.

Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS): This process, which has been commercialized by Imperial Oil Limited, is predominantly a vertical well process, with each well alternately injecting steam and producing bitumen and steam condensate. The heat injected warms the bitumen and lowers its viscosity. A heated zone is created through which the warmed bitumen can flow back into the well. This is a well-developed process; the major limitation is that only 17 percent of the initial oil-in-place can be recovered. IOL is developing novel post-CSS processes.

Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD): This process uses paired horizontal wells. Low-pressure steam continuously injected through the upper well, creates a steam chamber along the walls of which the heated bitumen flows and is produced in the lower well . Several variations of this process have been developed. One variation uses a single horizontal well, with steam injection through a central pipe and production along the annulus. Another variation involves steam injection through existing vertical wells and production through an underlying horizontal well. The key benefits of the SAGD process are an improved steam-oil ratio and high ultimate recovery - in the order of 60 to 70 percent. The outstanding technical issues relate to low initial oil rate, artificial lifting of bitumen to the surface, horizontal well operation and the extrapolation of the process to reservoirs having low permeability, low pressure or bottom water.

Cold Production: involves the co-production of oil and sand. This results in the development of high-permeability channels (called `wormholes') in the adjacent low cohesive strength sands, facilitating the flow of `foamy oil', caused by solution gas drive. Its key benefits are improved reservoir access, order-of- magnitude higher oil production rates (as compared to primary recovery) and lower production costs. The outstanding technical issues involve sand handling problems, field development strategies, wormhole plugging for water shut-off, low ultimate recovery and sand disposal. Originally, Cold Production mechanisms were thought to apply only to vertical wells with high-capacity pumps. It is now believed that these mechanisms may also apply to horizontal wells and lighter (heavy) oils [10]. We are just starting to understand and model foamy oil and wormhole effects.

Vapor Extraction (VAPEX): involves the injection of vaporized solvents such as ethane or propane to create a vapor-chamber through which the oil flows due to gravity drainage . The process can be applied in paired horizontal wells, single horizontal wells or a combination of vertical and horizontal wells. The key benefits are significantly lower energy costs, potential for in situ upgrading and application to thin reservoirs, with bottom water or reactive mineralogy. This process can also be used as a post-primary recovery process. The outstanding technical challenges are that it has yet to be field-tested and field injection and production strategies have yet to be developed.



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