[lbo-talk] Peak oil or: Why can't you guys learn to ride bicycles?

[/ dave /]

jthorn65 at sbcglobal.net wrote:

 > This is for extraction of only a portion of the oil. Most is 
unextractable with
 > current technology. 77% is the estimate of how much oil in this 
region cannot
 > be extracted. Heavy convention extraction methods can reach about 1% and
 > newer extraction technologies are estimated to be capable of recovering
 > approximately 14%. This is from data published in 2004. The 
technologies you
 > speak of are listed below in an extensive quote from Singh's work.

John, the info you attached to the above sounds very convincing. An 
estimated 77% can't be extracted? How, then, to explain the enthusiasm 
brimming over in various sectors vis-a-vis the Athabasca oil sands 
region? Here are a few snips from things I've seen recently, all in 
relation (to varying degrees) to just China's interest in same. I don't 
actually follow this stuff real closely, but I have seen quite a few 
references to Big Things happening in Alberta of late. Note the 
paragraph in the second article about $40+/barrel oil making the sands 
more attractive/viable -- a far cry from the hypothetical $170+/barrel 
in your earlier message. Interesting.



http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13132-1511234,00.html

March 05, 2005

China woos chief sitting on black goldmine
By Carl Mortished

HIS family once traded fur pelts with the Hudson Bay Company but Chief 
Jim Boucher of Fort McKay First Nation is on his way to China to talk 
about a new product and it could be worth billions.

He has a standing invitation to Beijing where a Chinese oil company is 
anxious to talk to him about a parcel of land in the middle of the 
world’s largest petroleum resource: the Athabasca oil sands. Fort McKay 
First Nation, a community of aboriginal Canadians of mainly Chipeywan 
descent has title over land which contains some 350 million barrels of 
bitumen, a significant resource for the less than 500 community members.

“Once the Chinese found we had some oil, they invited me over to China. 
I will probably go in April,” he says.

Fort McKay has already agreed a memorandum of understanding with Shell, 
its neighbour on the far shore of the Athabasca river. Chief Boucher’s 
deadpan expression gives nothing of his intentions but Neil Camarta, 
head of Shell’s Athabasca Oil Sands Project, is looking slightly nervous.

(...)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-12/31/content_405014.htm

Sinopec, CNPC to invest in Canadian oil firms
(Shenzhen Daily)
Updated: 2004-12-31 10:38

Chinese oil companies like Sinopec and CNPC are locating new sources of 
oil supply in Canada.

The move is expected to get a kick-start next month when Canadian Prime 
Minster Paul Martin visits Beijing for talks with top leaders. The two 
governments may sign framework accords that could lead to specific 
contracts between China’s two giant oil group, Sinopec and China 
National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), parent of PetroChina, and several 
Canadian firms with interests in the Alberta oil sands, Sinopec and 
industry sources say.

Following negotiations over the past few weeks, China Petrochemical 
Corp, a Sinopec group unit, may be among the first to sign an agreement, 
Sinopec sources said.

The Alberta oil sands, with proven reserves of 175 billion barrels, have 
long attracted the world’s major oil companies, but high production 
costs made them uncompetitive with more conventional, and easily 
extractable, supplies. Now with oil prices more than US$40 a barrel, and 
likely to remain high, the economics had become much more attractive, 
said a source at CNPC-Alberta Petroleum Center, a research outfit set up 
jointly by CNPC and the Alberta government in 1989.

According to company sources, Sinopec may buy one or more stakes in 
Canadian companies with licences to produce the Athabasca oil sands. 
Though the source would not name names, the New York Times last week 
suggested that among the possible partners is UTS Energy.

Another possible target could be the Canadian Oil Sands Trust, which is 
the majority shareholder in the largest oil sands project and holds a 
35.49 percent interest in the Syncrude joint venture that brings 
together international companies such as Conoco Phillips Oilsands, Exxon 
and Petro-Canada.

(...)

http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/113712.htm

Sinopec Chases Husky

China Petrochemical Corp. (Sinopec Group), China's biggest oil refiner, 
was in talks with Hutchison Whampoa and its controlling shareholder Li 
Ka-shing to buy all or part of their controlling stake in Canada's Husky 
Energy, a Sinopec source said.

An acquisition would not only give Sinopec access to Husky's millions of 
barrels of oil and natural gas reserves, but could provide the entry 
that Sinopec has been seeking into the province of Alberta's massive 
Athabasca oil sands.

(snip)

A representative of Sinopec Group, the parent of Hong Kong-listed China 
Petroleum & Petrochemical, was currently in Canada meeting Husky 
officials, the Sinopec source said.

Industry sources said the Sinopec Group had been eyeing an investment in 
Alberta's oil sands for some time as it sought to lock in access to oil 
supplies for the rapidly growing Chinese market.

The country next year is expected to import 40 percent of its crude oil, 
a percentage that is almost certain to swell in coming years.

In June, Sinopec was considering a proposal to ship synthetic crude 
derived from the oil sands via a pipeline across the Canadian Rockies to 
British Columbia, where it would be loaded on to tankers bound for 
China, according to PetroEnergy Information Network.

Sinopec is not alone in its interest in Canadian oil reserves. Both 
PetroChina, the country's biggest integrated oil company, and China 
National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) have also held talks with Canadian 
oil producers recently.

(...)

http://www.beijingportal.com.cn/7838/2005/01/21/1820@2482823.htm

China, Canada sign energy agreements
Beijing Portal 2005-01-21 14:34:27

Premier Wen Jiabao (second right) and visiting Canadian Prime Minister 
Paul Martin (third right) talk during a signing ceremony at the Great 
Hall of the People yesterday. The two sides signed a joint statement to 
improve co-operation in international affairs, and a dozen other 
agreements and memoranda of understanding.

China and Canada agreed yesterday to take on the energy sector -- oil 
and gas, nuclear energy, energy efficiency and cleaner energy -- as 
"priority areas" of long-term mutual co-operation.

"China and Canada have decided to work together to promote co-operation 
in the oil and gas sector, including Canada's oil sands, as well as in 
the uranium resources sector," a statement issued yesterday during the 
visit of Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin to China said.

The two nations will encourage respective enterprises to expand 
commercial partnerships, the Statement on Energy Co-operation in the 
21st Century indicated.

The National Development and Reform Commission and Natural Resources 
Canada will maintain regular dialogue and exchanges of views. Contacts 
will be conducted through the Canada-China Joint Working Group on Energy 
Co-operation, under a 2001 memorandum of understanding (MOU) concerning 
co-operation in energy, the statement said.

The nations are promising to uplift their relationship to a new level by 
"focusing their efforts strategically in areas of greatest mutual 
advantage," a joint statement issued after a meeting between Premier Wen 
Jiabao and his Canadian counterpart Paul Martin said.

The sides have agreed upon a outline for the activities of a strategic 
working group that will try to identify and develop paths for broadening 
ties.

"The work of the group will initially focus on enhancing our partnership 
in the fields of multilateral co-operation, natural resources and 
energy, and trade and investment," the document said. It will also 
tackle global security and multilateral co-operation, prosperity and 
sustainable growth, as well as promote people-to-people ties.

"Significant development has been seen in our relationship in a 
wide-range of areas during the past few years," said Wen, when speaking 
to an a trade delegation of more than 300 entrepreneurs.

"There is a need for the two countries to deepen understanding between 
each other," said Wen, adding that Canada has great advantages in energy 
and minerals, while China has advantages in the production of electrical 
appliances, daily necessities and electrical and mechanical products.

The Canadian Prime Minister said Canada wishes to strengthen 
co-operation in natural resources, investment and other fields.

"The Canadian business committee are here not for short-term 
prospects... but for a long-term co-operation," said Martin.

A total of 13 statements, agreements and MOUs were signed between China 
and Canada, on co-operation in energy and minerals, culture, 
telecommunications and other sectors.

(...)

-- 

/  dave  /