The President's 8:30 pm ET press conference tonight is the sixth since he's was re-elected; the fourth prime-time event of his presidency; and the 17th full-blown presser since he became 43. [Courtesy of ABC News' can-do Crawford veteran Karen Travers.]
We expect a 10-to-12-minute statement from him on energy policy and Social Security before he opens the floor to questions and Les Kinsolving.
A decision about whether he'll get full network coverage is - depending on where one is asking - TBD or TBA, owing partly to the start of May sweeps.
(At stake, Dan and Nicolle, as if you care: "Sweet Home Alabama," "Primetime Live," "Survivor," "CSI," an all-new "O.C." and "The Simple Life," "Will & Grace," and "The Apprentice.")
Do some catalogue shopping or finalize your weekend plans between now and 8:30 pm ET tonight, because nothing in the papers or on cable TV matters at this point. Not even David Broder's must-read column (which 41, 42, and 43 should have a commiseration conference call about). LINK
It's all about the potential paradigm shifts that are about to occur.
Things you should look for tonight:
1. There will be a heavy dose of frission in the room as the clock strikes 8:29 pm ET - because even in the currently changed/changing politico-media landscape, primetime is primetime.
2. The President will start slow on his opening statement, and it will be clear to the discerning viewer which topics he is really engaged on, and which are the reading of boilerplate.
3. The President will call on Ann Compton and Mark Knoller, reminding everyone watching that America has the blessing of two of the best radio reporters in the world.
4. The President will also take questions from John Dickerson and Ken Herman (for different reasons, but knowing he gets good-guy points for calling on each).
5. The President SHOULD call on, if he is smart (and he is), Olivier Knox of AFP, a Rain Man of foreign policy who remains underappreciated.
6. The President will make at least one sartorial observation about a male reporter . . . use a new nickname in public for the first time (staff or press - it's unclear which it will be at this writing) . . . flash a self-satisfied smile that can be described as a smirk (more than once) . . . and try disarming humor if asked why everything seems to be going to H, E, double toothpicks.
7. The President will also make a reference to a book he is reading/has read . . . . make a joke about his iPod or mountain bike . . . make a wistful reference to a reporter who is NOT there (Paging Mssrs. Fournier and Lindlaw!!!).
The President will NOT mention the WHCA dinner coming up Saturday (except maybe at the very end, when he might say "see y'all Saturday"); he WILL make a rare allusion to one or both of his daughters, and he will say something nice about (or be extra cordial to) a CBS News correspondent.
8. Reporters' topics that the President's creative team will have prepared him for will include:
Poll numbers (Bush will be dismissive, and answer such questions with off-topic information.); Iraq's slip back into violence following the election (Bush will use his standard "Democracy is hard," along with an historical allusion to how long it took the colonists in America to get up and running.); Bush's weird relationship with the Saudis (Bush will talk about good progress in the Middle East and ANWR.); the economy ("The economy is strong," he will say in channeling Don Evans and marshalling the best stats.).
Also: Conservative dissent on tax caps; the federal marriage amendment; will Jews go to heaven?; if Tom DeLay is found culpable by the ethics committee, should he step aside as leader?; does he support the decision to rescind GOP-backed ethics rule changes?; did he lie to Harry Reid about not politicizing the filibuster debate?; is John Bolton an angry man?
And: Does he believe that those who oppose judges based solely on their Roe v. Wade stance are irreligious?; something about the Denver Three (and Scott McClellan's ability to see into the future).
Also: "Mr. President, if Mr. DeLay is so effective, why does your Social Security plan seem to be in a tailspin?"; and "Mr. President, you won the popular vote. You look at a county map of America and all you see is Red. Why are you having to devote months of your public time to trying to keep just one of your campaign promises?"
9. A reporter would be a hero if they got Bush on the record on: "Mr. President, if in the end, Congress passes add-on personal accounts - a savings plan that is not funded with payroll taxes - and put the system in complete solvency, could you claim you have reformed Social Security?" (There will be no Bush-negotiating-with-himself tonight, however.)
10. The most clever questions that the White House didn't prepare the President for (until now):
One that mentions Matt Dowd and Terri Schiavo; one about Ralph Reed, James Dobson, and the Jena Band; why Rod Paige is joining Chester Finn's think tank, and why so many states flail about NCLB; why he thinks Social Security is a greater problem than foreign energy dependence and why he hasn't spent his political capital pushing energy legislation; anything about rural poverty; has Vicente Fox crossed the line with regard to Manuel Lopez Obrador?
(There are others, but we are saving them for later!!!!)
11. Carl Cameron will ask something tough; the New York Times will ask something soft and overly intellectual; John King will ask the best question; Dick Keil will ask the longest question, and/but will make news.
12. The most telling post-press conference comments will come from: Hugh Hewitt, Fred Barnes, and Peggy Noonan.
13. Watch for: whether Bush will be in the same nicknaming, jokey, giddy mood as in the immediate post-election - i.e., how soon and how much will he start insulting/mocking/man-flirting with the reporters when he calls on them.
14. Whether the reporters will be in the same respectful, solemn, we-are-talking-to-a-two-term-President-who-just-won-a-tough-reelection-campaign mood as they often have been since November, or whether they will be in a combative, what-is-up-with-this-imploding-second-term mode.
15. Although President Bush will NOT utter the words "The President IS relevant," the reporters in the room and the execs in the control rooms (and the people in their living rooms?) will be kickin' the tires on that one throughout.