Many of Bush's allies retreating on private accounts Support lacking, conservatives say By Nina J. Easton, Globe Staff
WASHINGTON -- The Weekly Standard, an influential conservative magazine, this week published an ''exit strategy" for the president's Social Security plan.
Conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer says the White House plan for private accounts, the heart of his reforms, is on life support. Free-market activist Stephen Moore, who in January felt ''the stars were aligned" for Congress to adopt private accounts, now says the ''window has slammed shut."
Even Edward H. Crane, president of the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank, and a chief architect of private accounts, said he thinks it will take another congressional election before President Bush has a realistic chance of enacting the centerpiece of his second-term agenda. ''I don't see the momentum in Congress right now," he said.
Bush attempted to reinvigorate his controversial private account plan last night, promoting it during a prime-time news conference after he wrapped up his 60-day campaign on behalf of Social Security reform. But even before he spoke, many of his allies were throwing in the towel, at least for this session of Congress.
They cite grim poll numbers, a refusal of Democrats to break ranks, and an advertising blitz mounted by opponents, such as the AARP. They alternately blame presidential adviser Karl Rove, the year's stagnant stock market, and Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada, an unflinching opponent.
But the conservative leaders who form the core of President Bush's support on Social Security reforms say they intend to prevail by making private accounts a central issue in the Senate and House races next year. ''The Republicans have lost the first round of the battle, but they're winning the war," Moore insisted. ''You have to have candidates run on it. You have to win races on it."
Free-market conservatives also take Bush at his word when he says he will not back away from private accounts, and they plan to fight any attempt to move forward on Social Security without the accounts.
''Bush succeeded in the past three elections, including the midterm, demonstrating that Republicans could bring up Social Security and survive," said Paul Gigot, editorial page editor of The Wall Street Journal, a leading voice of free-market economic opinion. ''What he has not demonstrated is that anyone will pay a price for opposing reform."
Nonetheless, some Republicans appear more worried about the price at the polls for tinkering with a cherished social program than for saying ''no thank you" to President Bush's plan to offer limited private accounts to younger workers.
At opening hearings in the Senate last week, Senator Olympia J. Snowe, Republican of Maine, worried about the ''cost" and ''risk" of the president's plan. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, said he was not sure he could muster the 11 votes he needed to win the vote in committee, let alone on the Senate floor.
Most public opinion polls have shown a slip in support for private accounts since the president began taking his case to the American people in January. But pollsters also note that recent surveys are riddled with mixed messages.
A poll released this week by Fox News/ Opinion Dynamics included a question emphasizing that the private account proposal would be ''a choice," and the idea received overwhelming support. ''People like the idea of personal choice," said Karlyn H. Bowman, a polling specialist at the American Enterprise Institute. ''The right to choose is a powerful idea."
Still, many of the most ardent proponents of the president's plan are in a sour mood about its chances. ''Despite Bush's valiant efforts to sell Congress and the nation on the idea of modernizing Social Security, the prospects are dim," Fred Barnes wrote in this week's Weekly Standard. Barnes suggested that the president blame Democrats for ''irresponsible" stubbornness and move on to ''issues with a brighter future," thus sparing the Republicans a 2006 campaign dominated by Social Security.
The Cato Institute's Crane, who has been pushing to privatize Social Security for decades, blamed Rove for focusing on convincing the country that the system was facing a financial crisis rather than advertising the benefits of personal ownership. ''If you focus on the green-eyeshade approach, people's eyes are going to glaze over," said Crane, who made his views known to Rove in a memo and follow-up meeting. ''You could argue that Rove likes the scare tactics in politics. You know, elect Bush, or Al Qaeda's going to get you."
The White House response to restless free-marketers like Crane is that the president does talk about private accounts in his remarks, although he also needs to educate the public about the strains facing a system with too many retirees and too few workers.
But conservative leaders say that perhaps their biggest obstacle is the blockade Democrats have mounted against adding private accounts to a social program they take credit for inventing.
''They've made this a fight to the death," Moore said. ''There's not even token bipartisan support for this, and you can't make a change like this without bipartisan support."
For now, they say they intend to be in this battle for the long haul, as they were on welfare reform. ''Most of the legislative victories that conservatives had took a long time to fight," Moore said. ''It could take some years before the public embraces this idea."